Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Poker: Fire That Third Bullet!

The countdown continues...

Don't make this mistake


Let's say a player limps from middle position and you raise with A-Q from the button. Only the limper calls.

It is heads-up on the flop. The flop misses you. Your opponent checks and you bet 50-75% of the pot and get called.

The turn misses you. Your opponent checks and you bet 50-75% of the pot and get called.

The river misses. Your opponent checks and you check. Your opponent wins with a small pocket pair.

Why didn't you fire the third bullet?

Your opponent has not shown any strength and you wimped out on the river. If you fired the third bullet, would he really call again unless he has a strong read? The answer is probably not.

Why? Because he is going to be thinking, "hmm...I didn't believe him on the flop or turn, but now that he bets the river and all I have is this one lousy pair, I'll fold."

Clearly, it depends on the cards on the board, your opponent and how he views your table image, chip stacks, and more...but don't be wimping out on the river.

Fire that third bullet if you ever expect to be a champion.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Poker Quiz and Answer: One Hand of Tournament Poker

The countdown continues to the WSOP....

Here is an actual hand of poker played at the Bellagio. You decide what the best course of action is based on the information provided below.

This hand is taken from a past issue of CardPlayer with analysis from Roy Winston and Michael Binger. I don't know Roy Winston, but I have played against Michael Binger. If there is one player I'd like to talk poker with one day it is with Michael.


Bellagio
First place is over $1 million.
No limit MTT
$15,000 Buy-in
There are 74 players left.


The blinds are $4,000-$8,000 with a $1,000 ante.
You have $430,000 and are in early position.
The big blind has $440,000.

The player under the gun who is extremely tight and has $225,000, raises for $23,000. The next player folds. It is your turn and you have 10d-10h. You call. Everyone folds to the player in the big blind. He calls. The pot is $82,000 with three players taking the flop.

(Michael: Calling is the right play. A re-raise turns your hand into a bluff and puts you into a difficult decision if you are re-raised all-in.)

(Roy: Re-raise)

(My comment: If your read is that the player under the gun is extremely tight, I would just call the raise. Before the flop, I would be putting both my opponents on a range of hands. The raiser will have a big hand, such as A-K. While the caller will have a pair or suited connectors.)


The flop is Jd-10c-7d.

The big blind checks. The initial raiser checks. You have a set and bet $60,000. The big blind calls. The initial raiser folds. The pot is now $202,000. (You have $347,000 left.)

(Michael: Agrees with bet. Wants callers with a set.)

(Roy: Should have made a bigger raise to end the hand here.)

(My comment: I have a set, but I don't like this coordinated a flop. My opponent may have a straight or a flush draw. If I bet here and get called, I no longer like my hand unless I hit a boat. If I bet the pot, my opponent will call given the implied odds. If I bet a little less, the same things will happen. I lean towards agreeing with Michael, especially if I'm just destined to lose this hand.

When I get called by the big blind, if the wrong card hits the turn, I will have to ry to get to the river as cheaply as possible.)


The turn is 2d. A possible flush, but you do have the 10d.

The big blind bets $80,000. You call. The pot is now $362,000. (You have $267,000 left.)

(In the actual hand, the player with pocket 10's did not call. He moved all-in and lost all of his chips. However, to me, that line of thinking is not very instructive, so I changed the play to a call.)

(Michael: You are priced-in to make the call here.)

(Roy: Call or fold.)

(My comment: No way I can fold to such a small bet, with the chance of hitting a boat on the river.)

The river is the 3s.

If the big blind moves all in, what would you do? If the big blind bets $140,000, what would you do?

(It seems to me that Michael and Roy would fold to either sized bet absent any other information about the opponent. The reason for the fold is that they want to save their chips for a better situation. If a call is made, and the call is the wrong decision, it is over.)

What did the big blind actually have in this hand?

5d-4d. He hit the flush on the turn.

Finally, they asked the player who lost with the set of tens, what he should have done. He agreed with Roy Winston. He said he should have re-raised preflop, which would have gotten the big blind to fold. And given the flop texture, he would bet more on the flop.

My comment: Hindsight is 20/20. Overall, though, I found this to be an interesting situation and one that we all face playing poker.

You can read the entire column here.

A Simple Exercise to Improve Your Tournament Poker Game

The countdown continues...

Here is a simple exercise to improve your game playing online poker.

Raise or Fold

Enter a MTT event online. You are going to do the following:

1. The first two rounds play tight
2. After the first two rounds, you will have the following decision pre-flop; You will raise, re-raise or fold. The only exception will be in the big blind where you may end up being in a hand when no one raises.
3. On the flop, play the player and the texture of the board.

How will this improve your game?

It show you the power of raising and re-raising.

For example, if a player raises on the cut-off (one to the right of the button) and you have pocket 6's, re-raise instead of calling or folding. If you get called, lean towards following through with a continuation bet on the flop.

You will also be surprised at how well this simple exercise works in accumulating a large stack of chips if you get a little luck in the first hour of play.

Give it a shot and it will show you the power of aggression.

Poker Quiz: How Good Of A Player Are You?

The countdown continues to the WSOP....

Here is an actual hand of poker played at the Bellagio. You decide what the best course of action is based on the information provided below. You are going to be playing against me. Oh yeah, you are playing for over $1 million! Good luck!

Bellagio
First place is over $1 million.
No limit MTT
$15,000 Buy-in
There are 74 players left.


The blinds are $4,000-$8,000 with a $1,000 ante.
You have $430,000 and are in early position.
I am the player in the big blind with $440,000.

The player under the gun who is extremely tight and has $225,000, raises for $23,000. The next player folds. It is your turn and you have 10d-10h. You call. Everyone folds to me in the big blind. I call. The pot is $82,000 with three of us taking the flop.

The flop is Jd-10c-7d.

I check. The initial raiser checks. You have a set and bet $60,000. I call. The initial raiser folds. The pot is now $202,000. (You have $347,000 left.)

The turn is 2d.
A possible flush, and you have the 10d.

I bet $80,000. You call. The pot is now $362,000. (You have $267,000 left.)

The river is the 3s.

Questions:

1. If I move all in, what would you do?

2. If I bet $140,000, what would you do?

3. Would you have played any of the above streets any differently? If so, why?

The answers will be provided tomorrow.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Another New, 5 out of 5 Star Testimonial For My Poker Book on Amazon.com

From Amazon

5.0 out of 5 stars One of the Best Books on Tournament Poker, April 26, 2009
By Tom Norton - See all my reviews

I was very pleasantly surprised by this book. Not being written by a high profile professional player, I wondered if it would be any good. It really is. And, No, I don't know the author.

This book is full of practical advice you can use right away. It basically tells you the "tricks of the trade" used by the pros extract chips from the rest of us. The "trick" is that the pros know that big hands are rare, so most likely, their opponents do not have a hand they're very confident in. These techniques work on that theory, but they let YOU be the one extracting the chips.

This book is well worth the little bit it costs. If nothing else, it will let you know what other players have been doing to you.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

New Testimonial For My Tournament Poker Book

The following testimonial for my book Tournament Poker: 101 Winning Moves just arrived in my email...it is another great one!

"I am fairly new to no limit hold 'em, having only started playing last year. I quickly learned that I knew a whole lot less than nothing.

After deciding I needed some assistance and not having any family or friends who played, I started some 'home study'.

I bought the usual books, some Harrington, some Sklansky etc - all very informative, boring, tight and not very effective in the hands of a newbie.

Your book is a revelation. It is like all the best bits from the dozen or so books I have already read all in the one volume with thought provoking sample hands to demonstrate application of the technique being discussed.

I would like to give balanced feedback and state that there are a number of typos appearing throughout the book which can be a little distracting however the meaning is not lost. (For what it's worth I am willing to send you a list of them if you are interested.)

All in all this is the best NL tournament book I've read. It has definitely improved my play and my awareness of when moves are being made on me. I can't wait for you to publish Vol II !!!"

Regards,
Mark Shuetrim (Australia)

A Poker Stars Double Shoot-Out

The countdown continues...

Poker Stars Double Shoot-out

I decided to try something new today. It was a low buy-in event on PS where you needed to win two shoot-outs to get a seat for Sunday's $750,000 event. Poker Stars has so many satellites, I decided that I needed to work on these kind of games.

Shoot-out Number 1


This first shoot-out only had 7 players. I played fairly tight until I needed to make some steals to chip up along with the blind increases. My goal was to get in a heads-up situation since I feel confident that I will win in these situations.

The first thing I try to do at any table is to identify player types. Most players simply play their cards. Their calls mean calling hands, and their raises mean premium cards. The tougher players are those who are more aggressive and tricky. I try to stay away from these players unless I have a big hand.

If I have a weakness in my game it is when a game gets down to three players. I tend to be too loose and aggressive. I have learned to let the cards and the situation dictate my play more.

In this shoot out I didn't have to worry about playing three handed since my opponent took out two players in one hand--leaving it heads-up. As a result, I was looking at being behind in chips 6-1 as we got heads-up.

My opponent was not a good heads-up player as he played way too tight. I used his betting pattern to my advantage and I was able to turn it around completely. I now had a huge lead.

Two times I got him all-in where I "dominated" his hand. The hands were A-Q versus A-4 and K-Q versus K-5. Both times he won! Ughh...

Finally, though, I won the match and moved on to the second shoot-out.

Shoot Out Number 2

This was 9-handed and there was only one tricky and aggressive player I was concerned about three seats to my left. As players got knocked off one by one, I was playing tight and making pre-flop raises as needed based on position and/or the cards.

Fortunately, the player to my right knocked out the aggressive opponent that concerned me. The guy to my right slow played pocket Aces all the way to the river--and almost folded his winning hand. When it got three handed, he also took out the other opponent.

Once again it was heads-up. And once again, my opponent was playing was too passive. Yes, he had a big chip lead but he folded too often.

I slowly chipped away at his stack. Now, he only had a slight chip lead. I think that heads-up when you take away an opponent's big lead, it weighs on him emotionally. It is depressing to see what appears to be an easy win, slip away.

I was feeling good about winning now, and the following hand came up:

On the button, I was dealt Ah-4d. I raised and my opponent called. The blinds were big and it was now an all-in or nothing move on the flop. The flop was a great one for me, 2h-5h-8h. I had a nut flush draw, a straight draw, and I thought pairing my Ace was also good. That gave me 15 outs, which would make me a favorite.

I pushed and my opponent paused for a long time. Oh no, I thought, this is the same pause he did when he had pocket Aces. Finally he called. He turned over two black Jacks...which did not hurt my outs.

The turn and river missed my hand---and oh well, I didn't win the seat.

I went over to Bodog and decided to enter a 200 player no limit MTT event. It got down to heads-up and I made a mistake. I pushed all-in pre-flop against an opponent I would beat heads-up if I was patient. I pushed with A-10 and he called with K-J. He hit his K and I was out. At least it was an $800 win.

Funny, but I may not have played the Bodog event if I didn't lose the seat on Poker Stars.

Friday, April 24, 2009

How To Win At Heads-Up Poker

The countdown to the WSOP continues...

Heads-Up Play


I have email from poker players asking me for advice on how to play heads-up. They are frustrated with finishing 2nd, when the bigger money is in first place.

I really enjoy heads-up play more than any other form of poker. The reason is that the game is more about the saying "play the player, not the cards." Of course, one of the bonuses of online play is that you don't have to worry about collusion:)

How to Win Heads-Up

Let me give you some advice on how to play heads-up. Be warned that this is my perspective, and you will certainly get differences of opinion. The over-riding strategy is to learn your opponent's playing style, usually by watching his betting patterns, and adjust your game to that style.

1. Figure out how your opponent plays heads-up, pre-flop in position.

When your opponent acts first pre-flop, you will get a signal on his playing style. In general, there are the "always raiser," the "I raise based on the strength of my hand," and the "folder."

a. The folder
A player who folds pre-flop in position is not going to win too often. He is going to be giving up too many chips. I don't care if you have 7-2 offsuit, don't fold!

If you are up against this opponent, your life will be easier than ever since you will be getting so much free money.

b. The I raise based on the strength of my hand
This player is so nice to play against since he plays like he is at a full table. If he raises, you know he has a hand. What you need to do is to gauge how often this occurs. If it rarely happens, then he is just playing too tight. In fact, against this kind of player, a fold out of position against his raise is almost always the right play.

However, if he raises more often then the cards would naturally dictate, then you have an opponent you are going to have to outplay after the flop. We will review how to play against him later.

c. The always raiser
This player is tough to beat since it is impossible to put him on a hand. And if you re-raise, he will often call since he is in position.

If you play against the always raiser, you are going to be put to the test. Re-raise him out of position and see if he is a folder or not. If he folds, well, your life got easier. If not, you are going to be in for a challenge from the flop on. More on this later.

2. Pre-flop out of position

When you are out of position heads-up, you are at a disadvantage. In general, you don't want to be raising or re-raising without a premium hand. The reason is that you often will lose too many chips when you miss on the flop.

Example:
You get A-J. Your opponent is a tough player and raises more often than would be typical of getting premium hands. He raises you. What should you do?

Don't re-raise! You are putting more chips in the pot out of position. What will you do when he calls and the flop is K-7-2? Bet out and lose more chips? Just call.

Of course, if you have never re-raised out of position, you can do so. And if you are against the always raiser, you can re-raise as well. But lean toward calling rather than raising against tough opponents.

3. Flop play, out of position

Watch for how your opponent plays on the flop. If he has the lead, does he always bet and how much does he bet? Some players will min bet the flop after taking the lead. Against these players, check raise and see what happens. Other players will bet half the pot if they miss. Again, check raise and see what happens.

Your objective on the flop is to play the player and the board. If your opponent signals the strength of his hand by his flop play, put him to the test with a check raise. Again, you want to test your opponent. You don't need cards to win heads-up. It is about the player.

Most players will give up on the flop if they are weak and have no drawing opportunities. Find out if your opponent is one of them.

4. The tougher opponents on the flop

The always raiser is a tough opponent. You really need to put this opponent to the test by calling with a wide range of hands. If he is really good, when you check the flop, he will bet the flop like he hit it. Guess what? He is not always getting big hands. Check raise him a few times and make him stop. You have to put fear and doubt into your opponent. You do this by showing strength.

Now, if you do get a big hand, you can get a real big win if you call the flop and make the check raise on the turn. It depends on your read of your opponent.

The opponent who bets a wide range of hands pre-flop is someone you want to be and not someone you want to play against. He is a tough opponent. The best way to approach flop play is to look for betting patterns. If he changes the size of his flop bet, figure out what these mean and play against that pattern.

For example if the small continuation bet means he is weak, look to call or check raise. One of the things I believe is that sometimes you are going to end up calling down your opponent with 3rd pair, just so you can figure out his playing style. I try to do this earlier than later, for learning purposes. And if you do win with 3rd pair, that really will put doubt in your opponent.

5. What is a winning hand
Top pair, 2nd pair and third pair are often winning hands. I find it very difficult to lay down 2nd pair against an opponent heads-up. Of course it depends on the board, but I am willing to try to keep the pot small and see the river cheap.

If you get a monster hand heads-up, try to figure out how to win a big pot. Don't scare your opponent out of the hand with a play you have never made before. Don't just push all-in, unless you are sure you will get a call. Take on a little more risk at the bad beat, for a bigger win. It's gambling for a reason.

6. What to do when you are losing

Yes, you are playing your game heads-up and you are losing! It happens. Stop and think for a second. Is it because your opponent is just getting better hands or are you playing scared?

If you are playing scared, change your betting pattern. If you have been too passive, which is most likely, you have to start raising and re-raising. If you really think you are outclassed, you can leave the game or move all-in. Any hand K-8 or better is a hand you can move all-in on.

My style of play is to allow my aggressive opponents to hang themselves and allow my passive opponents to turn on auto-fold. However, when I do go up against an opponent, who is outplaying me, I stop and change my style.

Conclusion: It is all about betting patterns and to "Play the Player and Not Your Cards."


The best way to figure out how an opponent plays is by betting patterns. Last year, after finishing my poker book, I went to play online heads-up poker. To my surprise the poker pro Huck Seed was playing heads-up. I decided to watch him to identify his betting patterns/playing style.

He was beating his opponent to death playing super aggressive. He was not crazy aggressive. But it was clear that his opponent was playing his cards and Huck was playing the player.

When he took all of this player's buy-in, I decided to sit down and play Huck. Frankly, I did this with trepidation because it was a cash game at higher levels than is typical for me. I told myself to let Huck take over the action, and let him think I was like his last opponent.

Sure enough, it worked. I won so many hands against Huck by taking on more risk and calling him down, or by playing the boards and raising his bets making him fold. But, Huck is a great heads-up player and he adjusted.

When I realized he adjusted his style for me (I knew this because his betting pattern changed and I was starting to lose my money to him), I adjusted my play as well. I became the aggressor and Huck tried to play the board against me. Fortunately, I got lucky and hit some big hands when this happened.

After about 15 or so minutes of play, Huck was losing and he left. I was excited about beating him since he was a pro, but I figured he may not be the best heads-up player in the world.

I guess I was wrong again! A few weeks ago Huck Seed won the National Heads-Up Championship! Wow!

Monday, April 20, 2009

The WSOP: An Uneven Playing Field

The countdown continues...

Background on Pros and Poker

I have been thinking more about yesterday's post about the WSOP and how the Pros have an unfair advantage. As I blogged yesterday, it appears that the following is true:

1. Pros are sponsored so they keep 100% of their winning at no risk.
2. Pros may soft play each other to avoid chip loss since they prefer to compete against recreational players.
3. Pros make deals--sometimes they wait until after the first break--to diversify their risk. But these deals also give them a reason to soft play each other when at the same table.

For perspective, I believe either the WSOP and/or WPT made it against the rules for the final two players to make a deal. If you recall when the WPT events were first aired on TV, the final two players were moving all-in with any two cards. It was exciting but stupid.

I also recall hearing a story about how one Pro actually trained a large number of players, with the agreement that if they were at the same table, his trainees would slough off chips to him. Is this a rumor? Is this true? I don't know.

Are the Pros better players?

Everyone knows that the game has a fair share of luck. Anyone who has played poker has taken a bad beat. The bigger the field, the more difficult it is to win.

I also know that any edge in a poker tournament is a big one. Heck, I believe I have uncovered a flaw in the poker RNG in one of the sites I play at, and I take advantage of that knowledge.

No one keeps track about how many events each player competes in. Does Phil Hellmuth get to the final table 1% of the time or 10% of the time? What about Daniel Negreanu or Gus Hansen? Cardplayer keeps track of dollar amounts and final table appearances, not how often they struck out. (Using this thinking, Dave Kingman may be considered the best player in the history of baseball.)

Are these really the best players? Or is it just an impression created from TV since they have these advantages, and play more often. When is the last time Howard Lederer won a bracelet? Maybe he has simply been too busy to play?

Could you win a bracelet if you had these edges?

I believe that there are many other poker players, who are not Pros, who could win as much and as often as these Pros. I believe if someone sponsored you for 10 no limit WSOP events, you would have a decent shot at getting to one final table.

Frankly, I believe that if I was sponsored for 10 WSOP events I would get into the final table at least once.

This whole topic is truly annoying and making me believe that the Pros are not all they are meant out to be. They may be in the top 10-20% of poker players--but there others who I think would be in that same group with the same edges. Heck, now my guess is that the winning online players may indeed be better poker players! And I never thought I would say that!!

What do you think?

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Do Poker Pros Freeroll Major Events? Is There Collusion?

The countdown to the WSOP continues...

I don't know the answer to these questions, but I am beginning to wonder if the playing field at major poker tournaments are an even playing field.

1. Do Pros Freeroll At Major Events?

I guess I am naive. I knew that the poker pros got sponsored, but I recently read something that I found hard to believe. Are you ready for this?

Poker sites that sponsor pro poker players pay for all their entry fees plus their travel expenses plus the players keeps 100% of their winnings!

Oh my...what a deal! No risk. 100% reward.

Oh wait. I guess the pro has to wear the poker sites logos to get this deal.

But if this is true, it really is bogus! Let me explain how big an edge it is...

A story that happened to me

Many years ago I played at a small card room quite often. It was before tournaments took over, so the game was always limit hold'em. I could beat everyone at this club except for one player. This one player would really outplay me all the time. It was crazy, because it was like he knew my cards. Fortunately, for me, he worked for the card room and he didn't play that often.

About one year later, I was sitting at another card club in the area. I became friendly with the manager and we started talking about poker players. I told him about this player who worked at the other club who I could never beat.

He laughed. He told me the reason he won is because he was actually stealing money from the place he worked. He had an unlimited bankroll! He had no risk, and 100% reward! Sound familiar?

2. Is their Collusion Among the Pros?

Having played at a WSOP table or two, I have noticed that if you have two poker pros at the same table, you will almost never see them playing aggressively against each other. I thought it was because it is easier to take chips from the other less experienced players. But really isn't this just a case of collusion?

It is like when one player is all-in against two opponents at a final table. The players will check the hand down in order to take out the all-in player, and finish higher in the event. This is really collusion, but it is an accepted practice.

In fact, the reason players must turn over their hole cards when they are all-in is to see if someone is sloughing off chips to a friend.

I think this collusion is acceptable behavior and can't be stopped. It should be something you are aware of if you are in the WSOP or a major event.

3. Aren't Making Deals Before the Event Starts a Shady Practice?

Players can make deals among themselves to diversify their risk of the event. Player A takes 10% of Player B, and Player B gets 10% of Player A.

The shady part is that no one else knows about the deal and it may effect decisions when these players are at the same table. I am not saying it does, but it is not difficult to figure it how this can happen.

Conclusion

I am not saying poker pros cheat. I am saying that if the things I mention are true, then they definitely have a big edge against the rest of us. I know I won't make many friends with this post, so please tell me where I am wrong. Hey, I've been wrong before and I can be wrong again.

Let me know what you think. Thanks.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Answer to Play Pocket Aces Against Me On This One Hand

Here is an actual hand of online poker that puts you to the test with pocket Aces.

Thanks to everyone for all the great answers I received on my blog and on Twitter.

Let's get back to your hand with pocket Aces. While this hand is from Cardplayer's March 2009 issue, I changed it just a little so you could learn more about how you play and how a Pro thinks about the game.

Let's set the stage again:


You are dealt pocket Aces. Your opponent is me. You have never played poker against me, so you don't have any clue about how I play the game.

Full Tilt Poker
$150 Buy-in no limit tournament
400 players


It is the second level. The blinds are $20-$40. You have $5,000. You are in the small blind. (In this hand, you are the poker player Bryan Devonshire.)

I am under the gun with $3,500. The cards are dealt and I limp. A player in the middle position limps. It is folded to you in the small blind. You find Ad-Ah.

You raise to $210. I call and the other player folds. It is heads-up. The pot is $500.

Bryan: When a player limps and calls a raise, it often means a small pair. But, when the raise is from the blinds and the early limper has position post-flop, the range widens considerably.

My takeaway: I think the pre-flop raise should have been greater. There is $140 in the pot, and the raise builds it to $350. The limper is getting a little more than 2-1 on the call. Online players make loose calls, especially when in position.

The flop is Qc-10d-10s. You bet $223, and I call. The pot is $946.

Bryan: The flop is favorable. The range of hands is: 2's to J's, and suited connectors like J-10 to A-10, K-J, Q-J, and K-Q.

My takeaway: This is either a very good flop or a very bad flop. Most likely, it is a very good flop. I think the bet size is good to keep the pot small.

The turn is 8c. You bet $500.

I raise to $1,200.

This is where I changed the situation. In the actual hand his opponent called the bet. I thought it would be more instructive to put in this raise.

What should you do with your pocket Aces?

Bryan: We'll be raised by any hand that beats us on the turn, and we can safely fold.

With my raise, I got some of you to fold and others put me on a bluff. Brian's stack would have gone from $5000 to about $4,100. If he moved all-in, and was wrong he would have been down to $1,500.

In actuality, I have Kd-Qh.

What did we learn from this hand?

1. A Pro is looking to manage pot size since he believe he can outplay his opponents in a tournament. Since he had no read on his opponent, he decided to fold a winning hand. The expression is "a good fold is a good thing."

2. This hand may reveal your style of play more than anything else. Your decision to fold, call or re-raise reflects the kind of player you are in a no limit event.

Did you fold because you tend to believe a raise on the turn or were you thinking you would have a better opportunity to accumulate chips? Did you re-raise because you knew it was me you were playing against, or is your style to embrace more risk. If you decided to call, what were you hoping to accomplish since your opponent will fire again on the river.

3. I was playing the player by raising on the turn.

First, I would never call a raise pre-flop with K-Q offsuit in this situation. I would only call that small a pre-flop raise with all pairs, and a range of no-gap suited connectors.

Second, that flop with K-Q offsuit is trouble since I could be up against A's, K's or A-K. But, with such a small bet on the flop, I would have called.

Finally, on the turn when my opponent bets half the pot it either means a monster or fear. I would raise since it is not likely to be a monster and I want to put my opponent to the test if I sense fear or weakness.

I hope you enjoyed this quiz. Hey, I did you give pocket Aces! Let me know if you found this exercise useful. If it is I well do it again. Thanks!

If you want to read the actual hand from Cardplayer go to:
http://snipurl.com/g4jfq

Great Testimonial for my book on 2+2 Forum




CLICK VISUAL TWICE TO ENLARGE

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Play Pocket Aces Against Me On This One Hand: How Good Are You?

Here is an actual hand of online poker that puts you to the test with pocket Aces.

You are going to be dealt pocket Aces. Your opponent is me. You have never played poker against me, so you don't have any clue about how I play the game.

You will be asked one question. This is an actual hand of poker.

Full Tilt Poker
$150 Buy-in no limit tournament
400 players


It is the second level. The blinds are $20-$40. You have $5,000. You are in the small blind.

I am under the gun with $3,500. The cards are dealt and I limp. A player in the middle position limps. It is folded to you in the small blind. You find Ad-Ah.

You raise to $210. I call and the other player folds. It is heads-up. The pot is $500.

(You should be thinking about the different hands I need to call your raise.)

The flop is Qc-10d-10s. You bet $223, and I call. The pot is $946.

(You should be thinking about the hands I might have to call your bet.)

The turn is 8c. You bet $500.

I raise to $1,200. What should you do with your pocket Aces?

Should You Slowplay Pocket Aces?

The Countdown to the WSOP continues....

"I lose all the time with pocket Aces. I should just muck them!"
-the whine of many poker players


When I hear players saying they lose all the time with pocket Aces, I know that these players are doing something wrong.

Maybe they are playing too tentative and giving free cards.

Maybe they don't know how to lay down Aces when they have four opponents, the flop is 9-10-J suited, and they get raised on the turn when the 8 hits.

Maybe they have been spooked by the the expression that you will either win a small pot with Aces, or lose a big pot.

I don't know what it is, but let's see if we can improve the value of pocket Aces when you get them.

Pocket Aces Pre-flop
You are not going to get this hand too often in a tournament. When you do get them you want to maximize their value.

If it is early in the event, you need to determine how opponents are dealing with limps and raises. If everyone folds to a raise, then you may want to limp. But, if there are a lot of players limping pre-flop, you want to raise to narrow the number of opponents. You also need to assess your chip stack compared to the blinds and your opponents.

Examples:
If it is the start of the WSOP where everyone gets $4,500, you want to raise. Why? Because you know players are going to be getting the right implied odds to call your raise. You may as well try to limit the competition.

If it is online and the start of an event, you may have only $1,500 and the levels may be $25-$50. You can raise if players are calling raises. Or, you can limp and hope to get only one or two callers. The one thing you will find online is that players are getting more aggressive, which would make me lean towards raising.

If it is online and the middle of the event, let's say with $200-$400 blinds and you have only $3,000 in chips, while most of your opponents have 20 times the big blind. Here, consider a call. Why? You need chips to win. You may as well take a chance and try to double up. Sure you may be knocked out, but take the risk. A raise should be all-in, and you may not get any callers. And, a raise to $1,200 looks fishy. Play weak and hope to get lucky.

Aces on the Flop

Let's say you limp and get four callers. If the flop is coordinated you want to keep the pot size small. If you get a lot of raising and re-raising, consider a fold. Your trap didn't work.

If you raise pre-flop and get one or two callers, you need to make a continuation bet. If you get resistance, you will need to assess the situation and decide the best play. Pros sometimes fold the winning hand. So don't be afraid to fold if you know or suspect your beat.

Again, you need to evaluate your opponents and how they play, their chips stacks, the betting action, and your own table image.

Conclusion

There is no right or wrong answer to whether you should slowplay pocket Aces. Sometimes I slowplay Aces and win a big pot, when a player calls with K-Q and the flop comes Queen high.

If you don't feel comfortable limping with Aces, don't do it. Just make sure you recognize the flop texture, the number of your opponents, and their and your own table images.

I love pocket Aces. I wish I was dealt pocket Aces every hand! I once was at the card club and was dealt pocket Aces five times in the space of 4 hours! That was huge. Four times I raised pre-flop and got no callers. The fifth time I re-raised an early position raise pre-flop--but my opponent folded. Oh well. I did end up taking down 2nd place at that event.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

A Tournament Poker Essential: Don't Do Anything Stupid

The Countdown to the WSOP continues...

One of the things that is not talked about when discussing tournament poker strategy is patience. I don't mean waiting for big premium starting hands. Or playing tight aggressive like so many authors suggest.

I mean losing your patience when things are not going your way. The flops are not hitting your hand. You are not accumulating chips fast enough to keep up with blind increases. You are spending an hour at the poker table with nothing good happening, and now you are in your second hour with no positive results. What to do?

You are not on tilt when this occurs, but you are losing your patience.

Time's Up

I see players taking unnecessary risks when they start losing their patience. For example, a player gets pocket 6's. He raises and gets re-raised. He has enough chips to play more hands but it's like a buzzer goes off in his head and it's time to take a stand. He calls with the pair, and runs into pocket Aces. As Heidi Klum says on Project Runway, "You are out!"

Ok, I admit it, this happens to me when I play online. It is a bad leak in my game. Especially since I know not to do it, and believe I can outplay and outwit my opponents. But my patience is lacking, and I want to stop playing if I don't get more chips now. It's the: I want it, and I want it now syndrome.

Don't do anything stupid!

If this is what happens to you, my suggestion is that you take a break. Not a long break, but a few minutes away from the table.

If you don't want to leave the table, then maybe you should do the following:

1. Recognize the problem.

2. Figure out why you are feeling this way. Is it something external you can avoid next time you play? Or, is it really just what is happening in the game?

3. If it is the game, try to interrupt your pattern. Do something that links to a positive thought and interrupts your desire to do something stupid.

Daniel Negreanu wrote an article in CardPlayer in 2005 about the advice his new wife gave him. The advice he took to heart was, "Don't do anything stupid!"

While her advice was about not making a reckless play, I think it is also good advice here. Avoid that buzzer going off your head. Don't push all-in knowing you will take the worse of it because you are losing your patience.

There are going to be other opportunities to accumulate chips, so look for them.

"Don't do anything stupid!"

Monday, April 13, 2009

Poker Quiz & Answers to Up Your Game

The countdown continues to the WSOP...

1. You have Jd-10d on the button. It is the middle of the tournament. You have $45,000. The blinds are $2,000-$4,000. The player under the gun limps, you limp, and the BB taps the table. There is $14,000 in the pot.

The flop is 9s-6h-3c. The first two players check and you check.

The turn is a 3s. Everyone checks.

The river is a 3d. Everyone checks. At showdown, the pre-flop raiser wins the hand.

Question: What would you have done differently and why?

Answer:
On the flop when both players check after limping in, you can assume they have a typical limping hand and whiffed. It is a rainbow flop, so making a bet will most likely take down the pot. Bet $9,000 and expect a nice win.


2. You have pocket 4's on the button. It is the middle of the tournament. You have $85,000. The blinds are $2,000-$4,000. The player under the gun raises to $10,000. He has $72,000. Everyone folds to you. You call. Only the two of you see the flop.

The flop is Qs-8d-2h. The pre-flop raiser bets $16,000. You fold.

Question: What would you have done differently and why?

Answer:
Folding is ok here, since the raise was from early position. If this was a player who has been raising too often, I may consider a call because he is loose and it is a steal flop. A steal flop is where there are no draws and a player would need a queen or a higher pocket pair to feel comfortable betting on the flop.


3. It is late in the tournament. You have pocket 2's on the button. Everyone folds to the player next to you. When he looks at his cards, he is distracted and pulls back his cards so you see he has pocket Aces. The blinds are $25,000-$50,000. He has $1,500,000, and you have about the same. He raises to $100,000. You fold.

Question: What would you have done differently and why?


Answer:
I always want my opponent to have pocket Aces when I have a small pair, and I'm getting great implied odds and risking a small percentage of my chips. If you hit that deuce you are risking only about 7% of your chips to possibly double up if your opponent is reckless.


4. It is late in the 45 player satellite event. Only the winner gets a seat to the WSOP. No one else gets paid. You have pocket J's on the button. The blinds are $5,000-$10,000. The player under the gun raises to $30,000. Everyone folds to you.
You have $60,000. Your opponent has $155,000. You fold.

Question: What would you have done differently and why?

Answer:
Calling here is a bad play, since you are going to be pot committed and the flop will have a card higher than a Jack over 65% of the time. Moving all-in in this situation is the best move since you only have 6 times the big blind and this may be the best hand you will get. Your opponent will call and you need to get chips to win the satellite. Even if he shows up with Ace's, you can hit your Jack and double up. A fold is a strange play unless you know for sure you will get a better opportunity real soon.


5. You are heads up at the final table of the main event of the WSOP against Daniel Negreanu. Daniel and you both have about $6 million in chips. The blinds are $50,000-$100,000. The first heads up hand has Daniel acting first. He limps. You find Ah-Jd. You will act first from the flop on. You raise to $400,000 and Daniel calls.

The flop is 9s-8s-2d. You make a continuation bet of $500,000, and Daniel calls.

The turn is a 6h. You check. Daniel bets and you fold, losing $900,000 on the first hand.

Question: What would you have done differently and why?

Answer:
This is the WSOP. You want to manage pot size. You want to play position poker. You don't want to grow a pot out of position against a pro.

Daniel will not fold to your pre-flop raise since he is a great player after the flop. Raising with A-J out of position makes the pot bigger when you must act first. Your continuation bet will be bigger and your loss will be bigger. That is what happened in this hand.

A call is a fine play against top players. A good flop could allow you to trap. A bad flop lets you get out of harms way for just your blind.

When is the raise the right play?
a) When your opponent has folded often to your pre-flop when you are out of position. b) When you have this hand and have the better position.

I hope this was a worthwhile quiz for you!

Poker Quiz to Up Your Game

Day 53...the countdown to the WSOP continues...

This quiz is designed to help you up your tournament poker game.

1. You have Jd-10d on the button. It is the middle of the tournament. You have $45,000. The blinds are $2,000-$4,000. The player under the gun limps, you limp, and the BB taps the table. There is $14,000 in the pot.

The flop is 9s-6h-3c. The first two players check and you check.

The turn is a 3s. Everyone checks.

The river is a 3d. Everyone checks. At showdown, the pre-flop raiser wins the hand.

Question: What would you have done differently and why?


2. You have pocket 4's on the button. It is the middle of the tournament. You have $85,000. The blinds are $2,000-$4,000. The player under the gun raises to $10,000. He has $72,000. Everyone folds to you. You call. Only the two of you see the flop.

The flop is Qs-8d-2h. The pre-flop raiser bets $16,000. You fold.

Question: What would you have done differently and why?



3. It is late in the tournament. You have pocket 2's on the button. Everyone folds to the player next to you. When he looks at his cards, he is distracted and pulls back his cards so you see he has pocket Aces. The blinds are $25,000-$50,000. He has $1,500,000, and you have about the same. He raises to $100,000. You fold.

Question: What would you have done differently and why?


4. It is late in the 45 player satellite event. Only the winner gets a seat to the WSOP. No one else gets paid. You have pocket J's on the button. The blinds are $5,000-$10,000. The player under the gun raises to $30,000. Everyone folds to you.
You have $60,000. Your opponent has $155,000. You fold.

Question: What would you have done differently and why?



5. You are heads up at the final table of the main event of the WSOP against Daniel Negreanu. Daniel and you both have about $6 million in chips. The blinds are $50,000-$100,000. The first heads up hand has Daniel acting first. He limps. You find Ah-Jd. You will act first from the flop on. You raise to $400,000 and Daniel calls.

The flop is 9s-8s-2d. You make a continuation bet of $500,000, and Daniel calls.

The turn is a 6h. You check. Daniel bets and you fold, losing $900,000 on the first hand.

Question: What would you have done differently and why?

Sunday, April 12, 2009

If you master this skill, I guarantee you will be a winning tournament poker player

Day 54...the countdown continues...

After playing hundreds of poker tournaments, there is one skill which will guarantee you are a winning tournament poker player. You probably have heard of this skill and you may think you understand what it means, but unless you have a WSOP bracelet or experience outstanding tournament success, you don't.

Let me tell you what this skill is, what it really means, and how to get better at it.

1. The most important skill in a poker tournament is to play the players and not your cards.

Most players have heard this skill before, but they really don't get it. Or if they do get it, they rarely use it once the tournament starts. Could this be you?

2. What this skill really means

Let me explain what playing the players really means. Players in tournaments have habits they tend to display. These habits give you a strong clue on what they are thinking and how they are feeling about the strength of their hand. The most notable consistency in players are their betting patterns.

As an example:

You are on the button with 2-2. The blinds are $50-$100. A solid player raises to $300 and everyone folds to you. You have $4,000 and your opponent has $4,000. In this situation, your opponent can have a big premium cards, medium pairs, two broadway cards, or A-x or above. In this situation, given the implied odds I would call.

Now, what are you thinking before the deal of the flop? If you are thinking, "please give me a 2," you really need to think at a higher level. You should be thinking "a 2 would be great, but even if I miss, I can still win the pot. Also, how much is in the pot, how much will be his continuation bet, etc."

The flop comes Q-7-5 rainbow. The pot is $750. Your opponent bets out $500. What should you do?

Well, if you are thinking "I would fold because I missed my 2, wrong." You shouldn't be thinking about your cards anymore, you should be playing this player.

Your opponent may have A-A, K-K, Q-Q, or A-Q--but what if the flop missed his pair of 9's. He made a standard continuation bet. Can you take this pot away from him?

YES! You can call the bet or raise. If you have watched this opponent before, you will know that he will continue his continuation bets on the turn or slow up on the turn. Against most players, I would simply call not because I am hoping for a 2 on the turn. I am calling to take away the pot on the turn if he checks or bets weak. The turn card will define my next action.

Does this make sense?

One more example: Same blinds with everyone with $4,000. This time you are in the big blind. A player in the middle position raises to $300, and another player on the button calls. You look down and find J-10 suited. You call.

The flop comes 7-7-2 rainbow. The player on the button bets $800. You have nothing, but that is not important. You know this opponent will bet in these situation when checked to. Now, you can raise or can you call. You call. And the original raiser folds.

The turn is a 6. What can you do to take down this pot? Your opponent is going to be afraid you have a 7. What else could you have? Play the player.

There is almost $3,000 in the pot. You have $2,900. What if you move all-in? Will your opponent call you with the last of his chips? Would you call if you had no pair facing an all-in on the turn?

Since your opponent can’t see your hole cards, you can always hold the winning hand. If you know when your opponent is weak, you can play your cards like you have the nuts.

Daniel Negreanu is one of the best pros at playing the player. He got this way from years of experience.

3. How to get better at playing the players and not your cards

Here are a few ways to get better at this skill.

The best way is to enter tournaments with your number one objective being to identify opportunities where you can play the players to win a pot.

If you still insist on playing your cards on the flop, here is an idea. Play online tournaments where you see your cards pre-flop, and then put masking tape over the cards so you start to think about the situation and play the players. Yeah, it's a weird notion but it may help you to get better at it.

A final way is to watch tournaments online where you don't know anyone's cards and think through what you would do to win the pot.

Conclusion

No limit tournament poker is about accumulating chips, stealing blinds and pots, and playing the players and not your cards. Know your opponents. Know the range of hands they will play pre-flop in these situations. Look at the flop and determine if this a flop where you can bluff out your opponent. Even if you don’t really have a better hand, you can win the pot because you are playing the player.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Unexpected Value: A New Idea in Tournament Poker

Day 55, the Countdown Continues

"The mathematically correct play is not always the best play."
-Chip Reese


What is unexpected value? Unexpected value is making a fold even though you have positive expected value, since you know you will get more value out of a later poker situation.

Example:

It was down to 18 players in a MTT. There were 9 players at my table and I was on the button. A tight player raised 3x's the big blind. It was folded to me. I found pocket Jacks. A call made no sense since it committed half my stack. It was a situation where if I moved all-in, the raiser would call me since he had committed about 40% of his chip stack.

Since I knew my opponent was tight, he was pot committed, and 65% of the time the flop alone will have one card higher than my Jack, I made the unusual play. I folded.

I believed the unexpected value of folding was greater than the expected value I may have enjoyed at the moment.

It ended up being the right thing to do since I was able to take my low chip stack and finish 4th.

Let's take this concept one step further:


You need chips to win a tournament, and our goal is to win.

Expected value is a solid cash game concept since it is about how mathematically in the long term you will be ahead.

Expected value does not play out in all tournament decisions because a tournament is one event that is limited in time and where the value of a chip changes over time.

Another example of unexpected value is a player who views the size of the pot and decides to throw in the last of his chips since the pot is so big. Well, one of the top tournament players mentioned that he used to make this mistake and get knocked out. Now, he will save those chips and use them to build his stack back up.

While he didn't give this idea a name, I think it is my unexpected value concept.

Another example is the way Phil Hellmuth plays no limit tournaments. Phil has cashed more often than any other player in these events. One thing I read is that Phil does not always make a call when he is on a draw. I wonder if it is because of the odds in the situation, or because Phil knows he has the edge by waiting for the right situation to accumulate chips.

One final example is where I took the above quote from the late Chip Reese. He told a story about how was much better than his opponent, and he risked a large percentage of his chips against this man since he knew he had a slight edge. He was right but he ended up losing the hand. That's when he said "The mathematically correct play is not always the best play." (Anyone recall the poker book I read that in?)

Perhaps that sums up the concept of unexpected value. Unexpected value is when the mathematically correct play is not the best play.

What do you think?

Friday, April 10, 2009

Expected Value in Poker: A Lousy Concept for the WSOP?

Day 56 The Countdown Continues...

What is expected value?

From wikibooks.org:

The expected value (EV) or expectation of a wager is how much you will win in the "long run" by making that wager.

For example, this situation comes up often in Texas hold'em: a player has four hearts on the turn, and needs to hit a heart on the next and final card to make a flush. He is absolutely certain he will win if he hits the flush and in so doing the board does not pair, because the board allows no possibility for a full house or better hand, and his flush will be the nut flush. Even if the board pairs, he has a good chance of winning, so he need not worry about other hands that much. The probability of catching the heart is about one in five. Therefore, he can expect to lose most of the time. However, the idea of continuing cannot be dismissed out of hand unless we know what his expectation is.

If it will cost $5 to call a bet and the pot, including other bets and calls, is $50, our player actually has a very positive expectation and should pay to see the next card. The chance of hitting his hand is only one in five, the pot is ten times the bet size. The player expects to win on average two dollars for every dollar invested every time this situation occurs.

Expected Value: A Lousy Concept for Tournaments


The more I play tournaments the more I learn that expected value is a lousy concept for tournaments. Here are some of my reasons why:

1. It is based on the "long run."
Cash games are in the long run. A tournament is not the long run. It is one moment in time.

2. It is based on the value of the chips being equal.
In cash games, a buck is a buck. In a tournament, the value of your chips change based on the blinds. As the blinds increase, it is said your chips are "worth" less.

3. Tournaments provide more opportunities to accumulate chips, so why not play when you have the upper hand.

I recall Chip Reese's story on how he lost a big pot against a poor player even though he had a slight edge. He said that sometimes the mathematically correct play is not the right play. And I think this is what happens when you adhere to expected value in a poker tournament.

My new tournament poker concept: Unexpected Value

What is unexpected value? Unexpected value is making a fold even though you have positive expected value, since you know you will get more value out of a better poker situation.

I will give you an example from a MTT I was playing in last night. It was down to 18 players. There were 9 players at my table and I was on the button. A tight player raised 3x's the big blind. It was folded to me. I found pocket Jacks. A call made no sense since it committed half my stack. It was a situation where if I moved all-in, the raiser would call me since he had committed about 40% of his chip stack.

Since I knew my opponent was tight, he was pot committed, and 65% of the time the flop alone will have one card higher than my Jack, I made the unusual play. I folded.

It ended up being the right thing to do since I was able to take my low chip stack and finish 4th.

What do you think?

Please let me know your thoughts on unexpected value in poker:) Thanks!

Thursday, April 9, 2009

You Must Understand This Poker Concept for the WSOP

Day 57 the Countdown Continues

A Simple Quiz

I am playing at the Oaks Card Club, and it is down to the final three tables. The blinds are $400-$800. I have $24,000 and I am on the button. A very tight player raises under the gun for $2,400. Everyone folds to me. I look down and find pocket 4's. What should I do?

The answer: You can't answer yet. You need to know how many chips he has left. My opponent has $21,000. Now, what should I do?

I am not going to raise my opponent because he would not make this play without pocket Aces, Kings, Queen, or A-K. More than likely, I am a big dog, so should I fold?

No! Please don't even think about folding.

The correct play is to call, and see the flop. I am risking just 10% of stack with the potential to win the rest of his stack. The risk-reward scenario is favorable. In poker terms, the implied odds is that I am risking $2,400 to win $21,000.

What happened?

The flop came 8-4-2 rainbow. My opponent lost all his chips to me since I hit the set. To this day, he still doesn't understand how I could make that call.

Implied Odds Before the Flop


Most people think about implied odds as a concept after the flop. In the WSOP this year, players will need to think about the implied odds before the flop.

In the event I am entering, with blinds being low at the start, and starting chips at $4,500, I should be looking at playing hands that can bust my opponent.

These are the small and medium pocket pairs, as well as the suited connectors. Besides the above example, take a look at what can happen with suited connectors:

A tight player raises the $50-$100 blind to $300 under the gun. I am sitting on the button with 7-5 suited. Should I call? Well, if my opponent and I have $4,500, I am getting great implied odds. I am hoping that he has pocket Aces so I can bust him with the right flop.

Conclusion

If you are playing in a tournament, and you are getting the right implied odds pre-flop take the risk with pairs and suited connectors. You never know what may hit the flop. And if it works out right, you will increase your chip stack substantially. Take the risk, when the implied odds tell you it's the best play.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

How to Win at the WSOP: Get Out of Your Comfort Zone

Countdown: Day 58

"You want to be a great poker player? Stop thinking you're better than the randomness of the game. Embrace the randomness. Let people think you're a wild risk taker. And start taking advantage of those afraid to risk their own chips."

-Making the Final Table by Erick Lindgren

At WSOP this year, it appears that players do not need to play fast. In the $1,500 event, the WMPP will be gone in roughly 6.2 hours. This is amazing!

Given the added time, should you be patient and wait for the premium cards to come to you or should you take advantage of your opponents who are being patient and waiting for premium starting hands?

Get out of your comfort zone.

You are not a WSOP bracelet winner yet. Work on changing your approach to the game if the following applies to you:

1. I wait for premium starting hands and play them aggressively
2. I play tight at the start of an event since I don't want to risk losing my chips
3. I sometimes get to the bubble but usually with few chips
4. I sometimes get to the final table but usually with few chips
5. I am not even sure how to play differently than I have been playing

It is time you changed your mental approach to no limit poker tournaments. While you can be incredibly patient this year, the fact is that you can not depend on the cards to get you a bracelet. These events go on for 2 or 3 or more days. You will take a bad beat or two or three. You will have incredibly long streaks of getting no cards.
You will slowly but surely be blinded off....unless....you get in the right mental approach.

Play to win and not just to cash.

Before you enter a no limit poker tournament you must put yourself in the right mind frame. If you are like most poker players you have heard Pros tell you: "In order to win, you have to survive."

In fact, you may have read many books and articles telling to play it safe early on, avoid confrontations unless you have a big hand, try to wait out and survive to make the final table. This is the advice that will keep you a loser. Guaranteed.

Tournament poker is not about survival. Tournament poker is about accumulating chips and winning. Usually one win in a WSOP tournament pays $500,000+.

One year at the WSOP I was playing in a $1,500 NL event. I was playing great, getting premium cards, and dominating my table. As the other tables were being broken down, I was feeling more and more confident that I had a shot at winning.

And then it happened. Two new players came over to my table, with trays of chips. It was unreal how many chips these guys had accumulated! These guys must be incredibly lucky, right? Nope. It was Phil Ivey and Erick Lingren. They crushed the players at my table and knocked out my opponents and me. It was unreal. They were playing at a much higher level of anyone I had ever witnessed.

Were they waiting patiently for premium cards? Of course not. They were aggressive, playing many hands, taking risks and playing to win.

Poker tournaments are all about winning.


The $1,500 WSOP event allows for a lot of play and the opportunity to be patient. It favors the pros. It is time to learn other ways to build your chip stack. It is time to try new plays. Test different ways to play starting today. You may lose a small buy-in event, but you will improve your game.

And the next time you play in a tournament, focus on the rewards of winning, not the penalty of losing your buy-in. Put Erick's quote into play. Use your chips as weapons. Make bets that will put fear in the mind and heart of your opponent. Be a risk taker, not a safe player. And maintain that aggressive mindset throughout the tournament.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Countdown: How to Analyze the Tournament Structure

Day 59: Let's win at the WSOP: How to analyze the tournament structure

My plan is to compete in Event 7, a $1,500 no limit tournament. What is the structure of this tournament?

Here is all the tournaments at the WSOP 2009 and the structure sheets.

Event 7:
This year the players will get $4,500 in chips--significantly more chips than last year!! The blinds start at $25-$50, with one hour levels. Last year there were 2,70 players with a first place prize of over $625,000--not bad for three days of work.

One way to evaluate the structure is to use Arnold Snyder's Patience factor in The Poker Tournament Formula. It is a way to determine how fast you may need to play in a poker tournament.

The formula uses the world's most patient player (WMPP) and estimates when he will be blinded off. With 60 minute rounds, it assumes this player will see blinds three times at each level (every 20 minutes).

Therefore for Event #7:

blinds total 3x/hr Cumulative
$25-$50 $75 $225 $225
$50-$100 150 450 675
$75-$150 225 675 1,350
$100-$200 300 900 2,250
$100-$200
ante $25 550 1,650 3,900
$150-$300
ante $50 950 2,850 6,750

What this chart shows is that the WMPP will last into the 7th round if he never plays a hand--that is incredible!!

The WMPP will be gone in roughly 6.2 hours. The patience factor is 6.2 squared or 38.44.

The net result is that this structure will favor the most skilled players. This is a new development that you must know to plan ahead for the WSOP.

Does that mean you should be patient and wait for the cards to come to you or should you take advantage of your opponents who are being patient and waiting for premium starting hands?

Sunday, April 5, 2009

What do you think of this poker play?

At the Oaks...

There was a player who people view as very tight at the no limit tournament today. He took advantage of his image with a very interesting move.

He would limp in with a range of hands. If the board was paired on the flop he would bet the turn making it look like he has three of a kind.

If he went to the turn, and the board paired, he would bet into the aggressor with big bets. Example: Flop 9-8-2 He calls one opponents bet. The turn is an 8, and he moves all-in or makes a big bet.

After watching this for almost 90 minutes, he was building a big stack.

He finally lost an all-in bet against me. Under the gun, I had to make a move and moved all-in with A-J. He called with Q-Q. I hit the Ace on the river. That cut his stack in half.

But, the question is: What do you think of this play--specifically the play on the turn when the board pairs on the turn, and he acts first and bets into his opponent?

It worked all day long. Maybe I'll have to add it as move #102.

Let's win at the WSOP: Countdown Day 60-Planning Ahead

60 Days to the WSOP: Planning Ahead

This will be the first in a series of articles to help you improve you chances of winning at the WSOP. Even if you are not going to the WSOP these articles may help you prepare for any no limit tournament.

My goal is to win a bracelet this year. A long shot? Absolutely. Frankly, I was ready last year since I had reviewed about 10 years worth of poker literature and wrote my book. Unfortunately, the one event I went to enter, got sold out. A major bummer, especially since I had read no event would be sold out like the year before.

Live and learn. I did play in 4 no limit events while in Vegas and I finished at the final table in 2 of them...not too bad.

Planning Ahead

Let's start this 60 day countdown, with the most boring part of the process. Planning ahead.

There are some things I want to go over to help you prepare:

1. Your health.
I know this sounds stupid, but you need to start taking care of yourself. The WSOP events are grueling. They start at noon and can last 12 hours or more. I recommend that you plan some type of exercise and diet routine. Build up your endurance with exercise and start to reduce the calories.

2. Get in a routine for sleep.
Again, sounds absurd since we are all adults, but you need to start getting enough sleep. A pattern of rest is a good idea. One of the biggest problems I have going to Vegas is getting a good night of sleep. It depends on where you stay, and if you are going alone or with someone else.

I have stayed at hotels where the air conditioner made noise on and off during the night, and where it even broke down. It is just not good. My suggestion is that you stay at the Rio (there are special rates for WSOP events at all the Harrah owned hotels) or if the room doesn't matter try the Gold Coast. I like the Gold Coast because I am almost never in the room, its a great deal and it just across the street from the Rio.

I have stayed at the nicer hotels during the WSOP, and taking a shuttle or a cab can be a problem. The reason I may have missed the event last year is that the cab I took from Harrah's to Rio actually got pulled over by some taxi commission cop. The cop had me get out and wait for another cab--about 15 minutes. Not good.

If you plan to stay longer than a week or so, you may google longer stay accomodations for better deals. However, the hotel casino deals this year are unbelievable!

3. Vegas, baby.
When you are in Vegas, there are all sorts of distractions. It is a party town and if you like to party, drink, gamble, etc. you may be lured by the dark side.

One of the reasons the local Pros have an edge is that they live nearby. They can sleep in their own bed. They are used to the madness. In sports, home teams always have the advantage. The same is true at the WSOP--although not to the same extent.

4. Free yourself of problems.
You need to clear your head of things that trouble you about family and friends. One year a player at my table had to leave the game because his wife was about to give birth. Why he entered that day is beyond my comprehension.

Try to get things that may bother you taken care of in the next 60 days. Clear your mind. These events need your total attention. And if you can't commit 100% to the event, due to family, friends or work, don't enter it.

5. Evaluate the structure of the event.
You need to find out the structure of the event. How many chips will you start with in the event? How long are the rounds? How much do the blinds increase each round?
How many players do you anticipate at the event? This information is vital on how to set up your game plan.

6. Develop your game plan.
The structure often determines your game plan. Will you need to be aggressive or passive? Are you going to let the cards determine your play at the start? How are you going to plan ahead for the actual event?

7. Practice, practice, practice.
Another huge edge the poker pro has is that the game is his livelihood. He or she plays it every day. If a poker pro had to do your job once per week, he or she would not be nearly as good as you. The same is true in poker.

Play the game every day. Read books. Study. Improve your game. Aim to peak when you get to the WSOP. Try to win a satellite to enter the WSOP, or win enough cash so you can "freeroll." I have been very lucky in that every year I have entered the WSOP, I had poker winnings I used to play.

Admittedly, I lost most or all of my winnings at most of the WSOP years I attended. But I learned and improved. And, to some extent, I can tell myself it was a "freeroll." (I really don't see it that way, but many players do.). Keep playing--if possible, try to play a no limit event every day!

I will continue the planning process in more detail next time.

What's Your Poker IQ?