To respond to a request on Twitter by JamesM_39:
What are outs in poker?
The number of cards you need to complete your draw or make a specific hand. For example, if you flop a flush draw you have 9 outs because there are nine cards in your suit that are potentially left in the deck that can make your flush. There may not be 9 outs since one or more players may have received your desired suited cards as their hole cards.
Why is it important to know the number of outs?
It is important to know the outs you have since you want to know the probability of making your hand on the the turn and or the river. And you want to compare that outcome with the pot odds are you are getting.
Here is a quick way to handle your outs and the probabilities:
1. If you are only going to see one more card, take the number of outs and multiply it by 2 to get the percentage. With that flush draw, you have 9 outs times 2 or an 18% probability of making your hand on the turn.
2. If you are going to see both the turn and river cards, take the number of outs and multiply it by 4 to get the percentage. With that flush draw, you have 9 outs times 4 or an 36% probability of making your hand on the turn and/or the river.
Now that you can quickly calculate outs into probabilities, let's look at pot odds.
What are pot odds?
Pot odds are simply the amount of money you are betting compared to the amount of money you can win that is already in the pot.
For example, if you are betting $50 to win a pot that has $100, you are betting $1 to win $2. When you convert that into percentages you divide 1 by 3, which is 33%. The reason you divide by 3 and not 2 is that it is like there are three possible outcomes, where one time you win, and the other two times you lose.
Therefore, if you are on a flush draw on the flop and plan to see the river card, you know you have 9 outs or a 36% probability of making your hand. If you had to bet $50 to win $100 in this situation, you would only be getting pot odds of 33%--which is lower than the odds you need of actually making your hand. Therefore, all things being equal, you should fold if this is the only factor to take into your decision.
Odds into Probabilities
Here is a simple chart of the number of Outs and the Estimated Probabilities if you stay to the river. Again, it is simply the number of outs multiplied by 4.
1=4%
2=8%
3=12%
4=16%
5=20%
6=24%
7=28%
8=32%
9=36%
10=40%
11=44%
12=48%
13=52%
Therefore, now all you have to do is to know how much you are going to bet and compare it to the amount you can win in the pot, in order to get another percentage for your pot odds.
If your pot odds percentage is greater than the number of outs percentage you should stay in the hand and at least call your opponent's bet. Of course, there may be other information you have, which indicates a fold is in order. For example, another player groans when two cards to a flush flops and you hear him whisper to his neighbor, "I mucked a flush draw."
Don't laugh. That situation recently happened to me, and it let me get away from my hand.
I hope this was easy to understand. I know some players don't like to do the math, but poker math is not that difficult. Good luck!
Showing posts with label poker probabilities. Show all posts
Showing posts with label poker probabilities. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Friday, February 13, 2009
11 Steps From Poker Beginner to Poker Winner (2)
Here are steps 6-11
Step 6: Know these 4 most common probabilities in hold’em poker.
•If your starting hand is not a pair, the probability of hitting one pair on the flop is about 32%. That's right, you (and your opponent) will not improve on the flop 2 out of 3 times.
•If your starting hand is a pair, the probability of hitting three of a kind on the flop is 12%.
•If your starting hand is two suited cards and 2 cards of the same suit flop, called a flush draw, the probability of making a flush is 36%.
•If you flop a straight draw, 4 cards to a straight, the probability of making a straight is 36%.
Step 7: Knowing the probabilities helps you decide how or if you should play your hand. All you need to do is compare the probability versus the pot odds.
The pot odds are the amount of your bet compared to the amount of money in the pot. For example, let’s say the pot has $50, and your opponent bets $50. To call that bet it will cost you $50 to win $100. That means you are getting 2-1 on your bet (the pot odds).
Now, let’s assume that your opponent made that bet on the flop, and you have a flush draw. You believe that if you make a flush you will win the pot. So, your probability is 36%, which is about 2-1. Since the pot odds are right, you should make the call.
Step 8: A trick in making the correct decision is to know not just the pot odds, but to know the implied odds.
Implied odds simply includes how much additional money you will win if you make your desired hand. Using the above example, if you and your opponent both had $1,000, and you hit your flush, your implied odds may actually be the $50 to win over $1,000! That means your implied odds are 20-1!
But wait. Your implied odds are really much less, since if you make your flush (let’s say on the next community card or turn), your opponent will see that you made your hand, and he will just fold to your bet. So, you end up with winning just the $100 in the pot for your $50 call.
That is why if the hand you are trying to make to win a pot is hidden from your opponent, you will usually win a lot more money. Your implied odds are higher, since he will not know that he is beat and will call your bets.
Step 9: In a poker tournament since the bets increase each round, you must learn to accumulate chips.
This is one of the most important things to learn in tournament play. You can’t sit back and wait for the best starting two hands. You must steal the blinds, especially as they increase each round. As a result, you need to learn the different ways to steal blinds, pots and accumulate chips.
Here are some tips:
•Blinds steals: When you are one of the last players to act pre-flop, and no one has entered the pot, raise with any two cards. Specifically, if you are on the button (the player to the right of the blinds), or the cut-off (The player two to the right of the blinds), just raise. You only have to beat a few players to win the pot.
•Power steals: Raise pre-flop when other players just call. When a player calls the blind, he has a good but not a great hand. When he raises the blind, he is telling everyone he has a strong hand. If other players call, raise them and tell them to fold since your hand is better.
•Continuation bets: If you do raise pre-flop and a player calls your raise, don’t give up. On the flop, your opponent will not improve his hand 2 out of 3 times, so make a continuation bet; that is, make a bet on the flop as if you made your hand. It will often force your opponent to fold.
Step 10: Play your opponent’s hand and not your hand. This is the most important tip in poker and most players don’t even know it.
Since your opponent can’t see your hole cards, you can always hold the winning hand. If you know when your opponent is weak, you can play your cards like you have the winning hand.
Example: Let’s say your opponent raises pre-flop with pocket Aces. You call his raise with pocket 2’s hoping. The flop comes down 8-7-6 all of hearts. This is a bad flop for you. But, forget about your hand.
Unless your opponent has an Ace of hearts, he can’t be feeling too comfortable. When he bets on the flop, think about what you can do to win the pot. If you call his bet, and a heart, 4, 5, 9 or 10 hit on the turn (21 cards), what’s your opponent going to do since it looks like you may have made a flush or straight.
If he checks the turn and you bet, what will he do? If he bets the turn, and you raise him, what will he do?
It’s important to know what your opponent will do in these situations and to play his hand not your hand. No limit tournament poker is about accumulating chips, stealing blinds and pots, and playing your opponent’s hand. Since most of the hand is revealed on the flop, figure out the range of hands your opponent is holding and play against these hands. Even if you don’t really have a better hand, you can win the pot because you are playing your opponent’s hand.
Step 11: Don’t go on tilt!
Poker is gambling. And even when you are a favorite to win a pot, you are not really that big of a favorite. If your opponent hits that one card to beat you on the river, don’t get so angry that you lose your composure. This is called going on tilt (If you want to laugh at a player who goes on tilt for all sorts of reasons, just visit YouTube and put in “Hellmuth.”)
When you go on tilt, you make bad decisions. If you do get angry at the poker table, before you play another pot and make a bad decision, walk away from the table. Take a break and calm down. They will deal you another hand when you return--I promise.
Step 6: Know these 4 most common probabilities in hold’em poker.
•If your starting hand is not a pair, the probability of hitting one pair on the flop is about 32%. That's right, you (and your opponent) will not improve on the flop 2 out of 3 times.
•If your starting hand is a pair, the probability of hitting three of a kind on the flop is 12%.
•If your starting hand is two suited cards and 2 cards of the same suit flop, called a flush draw, the probability of making a flush is 36%.
•If you flop a straight draw, 4 cards to a straight, the probability of making a straight is 36%.
Step 7: Knowing the probabilities helps you decide how or if you should play your hand. All you need to do is compare the probability versus the pot odds.
The pot odds are the amount of your bet compared to the amount of money in the pot. For example, let’s say the pot has $50, and your opponent bets $50. To call that bet it will cost you $50 to win $100. That means you are getting 2-1 on your bet (the pot odds).
Now, let’s assume that your opponent made that bet on the flop, and you have a flush draw. You believe that if you make a flush you will win the pot. So, your probability is 36%, which is about 2-1. Since the pot odds are right, you should make the call.
Step 8: A trick in making the correct decision is to know not just the pot odds, but to know the implied odds.
Implied odds simply includes how much additional money you will win if you make your desired hand. Using the above example, if you and your opponent both had $1,000, and you hit your flush, your implied odds may actually be the $50 to win over $1,000! That means your implied odds are 20-1!
But wait. Your implied odds are really much less, since if you make your flush (let’s say on the next community card or turn), your opponent will see that you made your hand, and he will just fold to your bet. So, you end up with winning just the $100 in the pot for your $50 call.
That is why if the hand you are trying to make to win a pot is hidden from your opponent, you will usually win a lot more money. Your implied odds are higher, since he will not know that he is beat and will call your bets.
Step 9: In a poker tournament since the bets increase each round, you must learn to accumulate chips.
This is one of the most important things to learn in tournament play. You can’t sit back and wait for the best starting two hands. You must steal the blinds, especially as they increase each round. As a result, you need to learn the different ways to steal blinds, pots and accumulate chips.
Here are some tips:
•Blinds steals: When you are one of the last players to act pre-flop, and no one has entered the pot, raise with any two cards. Specifically, if you are on the button (the player to the right of the blinds), or the cut-off (The player two to the right of the blinds), just raise. You only have to beat a few players to win the pot.
•Power steals: Raise pre-flop when other players just call. When a player calls the blind, he has a good but not a great hand. When he raises the blind, he is telling everyone he has a strong hand. If other players call, raise them and tell them to fold since your hand is better.
•Continuation bets: If you do raise pre-flop and a player calls your raise, don’t give up. On the flop, your opponent will not improve his hand 2 out of 3 times, so make a continuation bet; that is, make a bet on the flop as if you made your hand. It will often force your opponent to fold.
Step 10: Play your opponent’s hand and not your hand. This is the most important tip in poker and most players don’t even know it.
Since your opponent can’t see your hole cards, you can always hold the winning hand. If you know when your opponent is weak, you can play your cards like you have the winning hand.
Example: Let’s say your opponent raises pre-flop with pocket Aces. You call his raise with pocket 2’s hoping. The flop comes down 8-7-6 all of hearts. This is a bad flop for you. But, forget about your hand.
Unless your opponent has an Ace of hearts, he can’t be feeling too comfortable. When he bets on the flop, think about what you can do to win the pot. If you call his bet, and a heart, 4, 5, 9 or 10 hit on the turn (21 cards), what’s your opponent going to do since it looks like you may have made a flush or straight.
If he checks the turn and you bet, what will he do? If he bets the turn, and you raise him, what will he do?
It’s important to know what your opponent will do in these situations and to play his hand not your hand. No limit tournament poker is about accumulating chips, stealing blinds and pots, and playing your opponent’s hand. Since most of the hand is revealed on the flop, figure out the range of hands your opponent is holding and play against these hands. Even if you don’t really have a better hand, you can win the pot because you are playing your opponent’s hand.
Step 11: Don’t go on tilt!
Poker is gambling. And even when you are a favorite to win a pot, you are not really that big of a favorite. If your opponent hits that one card to beat you on the river, don’t get so angry that you lose your composure. This is called going on tilt (If you want to laugh at a player who goes on tilt for all sorts of reasons, just visit YouTube and put in “Hellmuth.”)
When you go on tilt, you make bad decisions. If you do get angry at the poker table, before you play another pot and make a bad decision, walk away from the table. Take a break and calm down. They will deal you another hand when you return--I promise.
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