End Game Strategy Using "M"

The WSOP is starting...

What is M?

In Harrington on Hold'em Volume II, Harrington reviewed the concept of M and the strategies based on your M.

M is your chip stack divided by the total of the blinds and antes. It tells you the number of rounds of the table you can survive before getting blinded off.

Unlike simply comparing your stack to what is posted in the big blind, the M takes into account both blinds and antes. As a result, you push the action more often with a wider range of opening hands, using the edge of acting first pre-flop to your advantage.

As your M drops, your need for more chips becomes more desperate and you must be more aggressive.

It is also a good idea to know your opponents M, since they also may be pushing with a wider range of hands when there M is getting low.

My additional thought on M is that you may want to adjust your M based on the time remaining in a round. For example, if the round just began your M is a good formula. However, if there are only a few minutes left in a round, you may want to adjust your M for the next level of blinds.

The Zones based on your M and the strategies

In general, the M tends to come into play towards the end of a tournament. Of course, if you've taken a big hit on your stack, you may need to use it earlier. Also, the M comes into play earlier on many online one table satellites, especially those turbo events.

Here is a brief review of the strategies using M:

Green Zone: M is 20 or more. You can play your style as you have ample chips.

Yellow Zone: M is 10-20. You need to be somewhat more aggressive with high pairs and high card hands. With small pairs and small connectors be more conservative.

Orange Zone: M is 6-10. You need to open with more hands and try a small ball approach. Again, be more careful with those small pairs and suited connectors. However, if you are considering opening with an all-in move, the small pairs and suited connectors are playable.

Red Zone: M is 1-4. Move all-in with a wide range of cards, like two face cards, small pairs or better, suited connectors. Your position at the table doesn't matter.

Keep in mind the concept of first in vigorish; this means that when no one is in the pot, the player who makes the first pre-flop raise has the initiative. Therefore, when your M is 3, if there is a 50% chance your opponents will fold, move all-in first pre-flop with almost any two cards.

When your M is below 2, move all-in with anything....any Ace, King, Queen, medium strength hand, connectors, pairs, etc.

Additional points on M

Know your opponents M since these players will be pushing the action. And your positional advantage of acting last will decrease.

Effective M is a way to adjust for short tables. To calculate your M when the table is short simply take your M and multiply it by the number of players left/10. So, if your M is 8 and there are 5 players left, your effective M is really 8 multiplied by .5 or 4. The result is that you need to be taking more chances. Also at a short table, your weak cards plus good pot odds really equals a playable situation.

Conclusion

This is a solid concept since it forces you to play when your stack is low relative to your survival rate. It makes your decision making easier since it is math based.

UPDATE: I need to provide more information on this concept. This may be something that I have not used and should be using as an end game strategy. I will provide more information soon (added 6/23/09)...note: In Harrington's book he writes: "playing correctly around inflection points is the most important single skill of no-limit hold 'em tournaments." And he follows with his introduction of M.

Our Next President--Who To Vote For...

I am a registered independent since I do not agree with all of the policies of either party.

Tonight I watched a great Frontline on PBS that reviewed both Obama and McCain.

My impressions based on this program:

Obama:
* smart, driven & cautious.
* has a vision of what he wants to accomplish which I think is centered around getting people out of poverty and helping the middle class.
* knows he is good at giving speeches.
* looks like his Presidential campaign is what he used to get elected as Senator in Illinois...from the speeches to the slogan.
* hasn't really had much time to accomplish much at all in Senate, since it appears he
had a plan to run for President since day one in the Senate. The Democrats also
saw him as the celebrity who could get elected President--probably after Hillary
served her term.

McCain:
* courage, patriotic & driven.
* has been at odds with conservative wing of his party for decades. Almost became a Democrat while in the Senate at the start of the Bush 1st term.
* committed to winning the war in Iraq. Could not stand Rumsfield or Bush during the 1st term since he knew their military plan was wrong.
* he was a key reason for the change in military strategy by Bush in the 2nd term, which is the "Surge" strategy
* it seems that the Bush re-election team took over his campaign for President once he was selected as the nominee. The result: he had to embrace the right wing policies and even Bush to appease conservatives and religious right. The choice of Palin--who clearly is not ready to take over as President--was driven by a need to get conservatives energized.

Overall IMHO:
Very impressive men. Perhaps the best choices we've had for President in a very long time.
I believe that either man would be an excellent President.
But it seems to me that Obama is the right man since the country is looking for
inspirational leadership at home, rather than winning a war abroad.

My fear is that once elected, our new President ends up just being a loyal party leader, rather than someone who can bring the best people together (regardless of party affiliation) to solve our country's challenges.

That's just my 2 cents.

Top 9 Signs That John McCain Wants to Lose the Election

After the debate, I got this feeling that Senator John McCain actually wants to lose the election. I mean given the state of the economy in the US and the world, wouldn't you be having second thoughts?

He is over 70 years old, and you know he didn't expect the entire world to be a mess. Dealing with a war is up his alley, but dealing with credit default swaps? I mean the last time he heard about swapping, it was wife swapping back in his prime.

I'm sure he can't back out now, but the signs are there:

9. Does an interview with Katie Couric rather than show up for his planned appearance on David Letterman

8. Realizes that as President he would no longer have time to play his favorite game of craps

7. Pretends to have early stage of Alzheimer by calling Obama “that one”

6. Admits to his shrink he dreams of being Slim Pickens in “Dr. Strangelove” riding the bomb down on Hanoi

5. Has been caught sleep walking into Sarah Palin’s bedroom

4. His latest ad campaign blames the Senate for all of the country’s problems, and Obama is a Senator so there!

3. Wants the government to buy back home mortgages because while he still can’t recall how many homes he owns, he knows he must owe a shit load of money

2. Rather than go to the first debate, he wanted to stay in Washington and party with President Bush and his daughters

1. Openly tells staff he made a mistake picking Sarah Palin as VP. Yes, he now wants Tina Fey.