It is the 2008 World Poker Tour Championship. You buy-in for $25,000 and you get $50,000 in chips. Sounds like a deep stack tournament to me=)
Because of the deep chip stack players are coming in with all sorts of hands. Including you!
Blinds are $100-$200, two players limp and you have the 6c-3s. A power house of a hand. Instead of raising or folding, you call. There are lots of callers. Seven see the flop. The pot is $1,400.
The flop is Qc-6h-3c. You hit two pair. There is the potential flush draw.
After three checks, the solid player in front of you, bets $1,200. You call.
The real loose player next to you, raises to $4,200.
Everyone folds back to you. What does your opponent have? He is a loose player, so who really knows for sure. But, I'd guess anything from a set, two pair (doubtful), a flush draw, and maybe even a straight draw--after all it is a loose player, with players coming in with any two cards.
You don't fold. You just call to see the turn. The pot is now $11,000.
The turn is an Ah. You call. Your opponent bets $10,000. What does your opponent have?
Hmm...maybe a set, a flush draw, a straight draw...what about if the Ace helped his hand..maybe A-Q? At this point, I am thinking that I can either fold, or move all-in and just go home. I don't really want to see another card because if it is a club, it will be a tough decision.
Instead you just call. The pot is now $31,000.
The river is the 7d.
What should you do?
This is an actual hand. You are playing Marcel Luske's hand in the WPT event at the Bellagio Las Vegas.
Image via Wikipedi
Marcel bets out on the river for $5,000. He says it is a value bet as he puts his opponent on a flush draw. His opponent folds.
Now this is one of those hands which I think is being played poorly. I truly don't get it. If Luske puts his opponent on a flush draw, move all-in on the turn. You are an 84% favorite, and those are nice percentages if your opponent is crazy enough to call. If he folds, you win the same amount. (Maybe he calls if he has the nut flush draw since you would be moving all-in with such a big overbet?)
Could Marcel's opponent have pocket Q's, 6's or 3's? Yes. If so, you are going to be losing a ton of chips on the river anyway.
Risk is good.
By just calling on the turn, what was Marcel going to do if the club hit on the river? Fold? That is a big loss in chips even with a starting stack of $50,000.
Also, if you do call, why not check the river and see if you win more from your loose opponent? Or maybe it wasn't really a value bet. Maybe it was a blocking bet that didn't get called.
What do you think? What did you decide to do in this situation? Were you right or wrong? Is my thinking right or wrong?
It is interesting that I read so many poker articles that try to present an idea, but just doesn't work for me. At least by turning them into quizzes, it helps to demonstrate whether the thinking in these articles are right or wrong.