It is the 2008 World Poker Tour Championship. You buy-in for $25,000 and you get $50,000 in chips. Sounds like a deep stack tournament to me=)
Because of the deep chip stack players are coming in with all sorts of hands. Including you!
Blinds are $100-$200, two players limp and you have the 6c-3s. A power house of a hand. Instead of raising or folding, you call. There are lots of callers. Seven see the flop. The pot is $1,400.
The flop is Qc-6h-3c. You hit two pair. There is the potential flush draw.
After three checks, the solid player in front of you, bets $1,200. You call.
The real loose player next to you, raises to $4,200.
Everyone folds back to you. What does your opponent have? He is a loose player, so who really knows for sure. But, I'd guess anything from a set, two pair (doubtful), a flush draw, and maybe even a straight draw--after all it is a loose player, with players coming in with any two cards.
You don't fold. You just call to see the turn. The pot is now $11,000.
The turn is an Ah. You call. Your opponent bets $10,000. What does your opponent have?
Hmm...maybe a set, a flush draw, a straight draw...what about if the Ace helped his hand..maybe A-Q? At this point, I am thinking that I can either fold, or move all-in and just go home. I don't really want to see another card because if it is a club, it will be a tough decision.
Instead you just call. The pot is now $31,000.
The river is the 7d.
What should you do?
Answer
This is an actual hand. You are playing Marcel Luske's hand in the WPT event at the Bellagio Las Vegas.
Image via Wikipedi
Marcel bets out on the river for $5,000. He says it is a value bet as he puts his opponent on a flush draw. His opponent folds.
Now this is one of those hands which I think is being played poorly. I truly don't get it. If Luske puts his opponent on a flush draw, move all-in on the turn. You are an 84% favorite, and those are nice percentages if your opponent is crazy enough to call. If he folds, you win the same amount. (Maybe he calls if he has the nut flush draw since you would be moving all-in with such a big overbet?)
Could Marcel's opponent have pocket Q's, 6's or 3's? Yes. If so, you are going to be losing a ton of chips on the river anyway.
Risk is good.
By just calling on the turn, what was Marcel going to do if the club hit on the river? Fold? That is a big loss in chips even with a starting stack of $50,000.
Also, if you do call, why not check the river and see if you win more from your loose opponent? Or maybe it wasn't really a value bet. Maybe it was a blocking bet that didn't get called.
What do you think? What did you decide to do in this situation? Were you right or wrong? Is my thinking right or wrong?
It is interesting that I read so many poker articles that try to present an idea, but just doesn't work for me. At least by turning them into quizzes, it helps to demonstrate whether the thinking in these articles are right or wrong.
Posts
3 comments:
Interesting hand. It looks like there are problems with it straight from the turn, not necessarily the river. Poker is like chess, you need to think a few steps ahead. Check/calling a huge potsized turn bet with the plan of check/folding a small bet on the river when it basically blanks is pretty weak, IMO.
(note: you are out of position right?)
Letting an aggressively player take the lead is not necessarily a bad move i dont think. If you think you have the best hand, and you want to try to keep the pot size small, let the bugger bluff at it, and/or build the pot.
PREFLOP:
- i personally hate limp limp limpies. Since you are the third player, i guess limping is okay. I find that even a raise is cool here, take control, be aggressive. I'd personally raise or fold. If it was suited, and more connected, i may be more prone to playing it.
- nevertheless, limping i dont mind so much here. No big mistakes yet.
FLOP:.
- when a solid player leads out, id rather see a raise from two pair - you gotta see how he reacts to aggression. He is likely betting out KQ, OJ and maybe at the top of his range AQ, right? raise for value and to see wehre you are at.
- when the aggressive player raises, i think the flat call is fine. Keep the pot small, and see what's going to happen. Aggressive players are unpredictable... be weary.
HOWEVER, I HATE THAT YOU HAVE RELINQUISHED COMPLETE CONTROL HERE. You have not shown ANY aggression, playing it weak, just calling calling calling - NOT A GOOD STRATEGY, IMO!
TURN:
This is where i think the biggest mistake of the hand is. Check/calling 11k.
- Think, what does he have? at the bottom of his range he might have a bare Q. But is that likely? against Luske maybe? how has he been playing that day? Could he be going nuts with a flush draw.
- it is more like that you are beat, but more importantly, you are beat in the fact that you do not have any control in the pot.
- check/calling is so weak especially when on the river...
RIVER
... you check/fold a relatively tiny bet!
- what is your thought process here? Why are you check/calling, putting an opponent on a flush draw, then check/folding when the 7 came? are you worried he made the straight with 45? does he have 45 of clubs?
Lets break down the possible hands:
- KQ (seems only somewhat likely, but not really)
- Ax spades, Kx of clubs (prob with a pair?)
- AQ
-45o or 45s
- 66 or 33 for a set.
you dont beat much so fine, fold. BUT! its only 5k, and you check called so many streets. I think the problem was on the turn. you seemed to have no read and no plan of attack.
This hand is ridden with problems. I like it.
Thanks for sharing!!! I hope my comments make sense.
-
Thanks for your comments!
Just one clarification....Luske bet on the river $5,000 and his opponent folds.
Thanks,
Mitchell
Wow! I just realized that this is similar to how I got knocked out of Sunday's event!
I moved all-in on the turn because I put my opponent on a flush. I had top pair and inside straight draw. My opponent called--and I was right!
He had nothing--just a flush draw.
It was such a big overbet, he thought I was bluffing?
He had 9 outs...and hit it. Ouch!
Mitchell
Post a Comment