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Thanks for all your answers on my blog (previous post) and on Twitter. When you read what actually happened and the analysis, compare it to your thinking.
Question & Answer
This hand is taken from the final table of a $10,000 buy-in event at The Plaza in 2004.
The player with the 8c-5c was Layne Flack and his opponent was Daniel Negreanu. While everyone has seen Daniel's game on TV, few know much about Layne. Layne Flack is an aggressive player, and likes to raise pre-flop with a range of hands.
The hand was featured in a CardPlayer article and analyzed by Roy Winston and Michael Binger.
First place over $1 million.
You are one of the final 6 players.
You are Layne Flack.
I am Daniel Negreanu (without the cash wins, of course:))
Blinds are $1,500-$3,000 with a $500 ante
You have $110,000 and are under the gun. You find 8c-5c. You limp in for $3,000. Another player limps. I am in the small blind with $130,000 and call. The big blind also calls. There is $15,000 in the pot.
(Michael: Flack had 110,000 and the total of the blinds and antes was 10,500, which gave Flack an M of about 10. Either fold 8-5 suited or come in for a raise of about 8,000.)
(My comment: Six handed I like to raise with this suited connector hand because there is $10,500 in the pot to steal. Online a min raise can work to get your opponents to fold, while live play a 2.5 times the big blind raise has a better chance. Against top Pros, the reality is that you will be called when you come in with almost any raise.)
The flop is Ac-9c-6c. You hit your flush!
You bet $12,000. The first player calls and I call. The big blind folds. There is $51,000 in the pot.
(Michael: Likes the bet size as it may make your opponents think you are bluffing, betting top pair, or betting a monster. Betting 80 percent of the pot keeps them guessing.)
(Roy: Should have bet more on the flop.)
(My comment: I agree with Michael.)
The turn is a Kd. You bet $22,000 and only I call. The pot is $95,000.
(Michael: Bet half the pot, maybe $25,000-$30,000.)
(Roy: A $22,000 bet prices in your opponent. Bet more.)
(My comment: This is where I totally disagree. Here is why: there is $51,000 in the pot. You have $95,000 left. If you bet the pot and get called, you will have only $44,000 left which is not enough to make a pot sized bet on the river. After reading Gus Hansen's book, I would move all-in on the the turn. Gus will shut out action on the turn and not give his opponent the opportunity to draw out on him on the river.)
The river is a 10c. You check and I bet $14,000.
(Michael: You have to call with 8-1 odds.)
(Roy: If you know your beat, just fold.)
(My comment: I don't want to see the river.)
In the actual hand, Daniel revealed the Kc-10h for a bigger flush. Layne said that the only thing he would change is that he might not make the river call.
As you can tell, some Pros like to extract more value on the turn with smaller bets. However, given the chip stacks I would try to close things out on the turn and not give my opponent an opportunity to beat me.
For the full analysis go to the original article: http://snipurl.com/h9o6a