Why Phil Ivey Won't Win the WSOP Main Event

Why Phil Ivey Won't Win the WSOP Main Event

Here are the final 9.
(And Congrats to Leo Margets, who was the woman who did the best at the 2009 main event.)

• Darvin Moon: being portrayed as the worst player
• Eric Buchman: New York poker pro.
• Steven Begleiter: helped to put you, me and the world in a recession. If he wins, there is no God.
  
• Jeff Shulman: his dad just won the WSOPE, so enough already.
• Kevin Schaffel: has ESPN shown him play one hand yet?
• Joseph Cada: did anyone card this kid? I think he asked me to buy him beer at the 7-11.
• Antoine Saout: the French Moneymaker? Uh oh, watch out, I think the French invented poker--pogue.
• James Akenhead: pro from London. He seems way too nice too win.
• Phil Ivey: the best player

My thoughts

I am rooting for Phil Ivey to win because it would be the best thing to happen to the game. A top pro winning would help to support legislation that is based on the fact that poker is a game of skill and not chance. (It would not make the two-faced NFL go away, and they will continue to pay off politicians to block legislation that allows online poker to be regulated and taxed.)

Ivey is the best poker player at the table, and maybe the world.

Ivey likes to be aggressive and control a table with his play. This may work in his favor since the tendency is to tighten up at the final table of the WSOP. Heck, I don't think I'd play a hand until it got down to 7 or 6 handed.

There are a number of poker pros at the final table. The difference between Ivey and another poker pro is not that great. It is not like comparing Barry Bonds against Marvin Bernard (although neither knew what that stuff was they were injecting into their body. =) It's more like comparing A-Rod and David Wright.

Bottom Line

Phil Ivey has a 25% chance to win the main event. Which means he has a better probability of losing the event.

My pick: Eric Buchman. New York, New York.

What do you think?

What Do Customers Think of Tournament Poker: 101 Winning Moves

Tournament Poker: 101 Winning Moves: More Customer Testimonials
(yeah, gratuitous photo of Lacy Jones to spice up the post)

“I've been meaning to send you a mail and thank you for your book...101 winning moves. I see myself as more of a cash game person but wanted to improve my tournament play. I belong to a local poker league and hadn't done better than a 4th place in a little over a year. I got your book toward the end of last year and won the league main event using your techniques. This year out of the 10 tourneys (monthly) so far I have won 4 gotten 2nd in two 4th and 6th. I know the book helped. Thanks.”
Brett

Image by chasingthegambler

“Great book!! Thanks”
gandalf

“I am fairly new to no limit hold 'em, having only started playing last year. I quickly learned that I knew a whole lot less than nothing.

After deciding I needed some assistance and not having any family or friends who played, I started some 'home study'.

I bought the usual books, some Harrington, some Sklansky etc - all very informative, boring, tight and not very effective in the hands of a newbie.

Your book is a revelation. It is like all the best bits from the dozen or so books I have already read all in the one volume with thought provoking sample hands to demonstrate application of the technique being discussed.

I would like to give balanced feedback and state that there are a number of typos appearing throughout the book which can be a little distracting however the meaning is not lost. (For what it's worth I am willing to send you a list of them if you are interested.)

All in all this is the best NL tournament book I've read. It has definitely improved my play and my awareness of when moves are being made on me. I can't wait for you to publish Vol II !!!”
Regards,
Mark Shuetrim (Australia)

“Thx Loved UR Book.”
Rextaiqi

“I bought the e-book and I have to say I think it is superb. As you explain, we have to pull off some moves but trying to find out piecemeal from blogs, and books is really difficult.

The other thing I really like is that so many of your examples are with effective stack sizes of around 20BB. A huge part of any on-line tournament is spent with the field having an average stack of about 20BB yet few books cover this well. As a relative beginner in tournaments this makes life difficult

Once again - thanks. This is a very useful book.”
Trevor Duddle

“I have purchased your book and enjoyed it.”
sosh

“I've enjoyed the first reading of 101 Winning Moves, and plan to reread it again and again.”
charlesja523

“Mitchell,

I just wanted to say that I loved your book. I bought it after taking your poker quiz, which I did pretty well on haha, and it has really helped me with tournaments. I'm not old enough to play live yet but the moves you talk about in your book helped me win my first online tourney and I've cashed in 5 of the last 7 that I've entered, including making the final table in 2. I just wanted to say thanks for putting together all those moves and I love reading your blog as well!”
Have a great day,
Jordan Nilson

“great book, thank you!”
hayn123

“Thanks! GREAT BOOK!!!!!”
Allan Wiser

“Great book!”
Cheers, Marc

“I bought your book and really appreciate it !!”
Best Wishes,
Ken Proudler

“Very nice, very good job.
This day, I finished 3rd in tournament (Full Tilt 10+1$ 45 players) ... this was the first time :-)."
Pascalgarnier

“Great stuff, I'm reading it almost as we "speak"...
Keep up the good work!”
Conrad Holm
Norway

“Hi! I bought your Tournament Poker e-book today & it is amazing! I haven't tried a tournament yet, but it really opened my eyes to what I have been doing wrong. Thank you for this wonderful book. Have a great day!”
ginger

“Thank you Mitchell,
I've been reading the PDF version and it's refreshing to get your advice. Finally a book that is different from all the others on the market who all promote tight play!

Looking forward to getting the hardcopy.”
Kind Regards,
Chris

“Just started reading your book, seems our playing styles are very similar, am getting ready to move up to bigger tournaments.”
Stuart

“Hi Mitchell
I've read all the books you've mentioned Incl. Harrington's cash games, but I still believe that Gus's book and your book are the best I've read so far and profited from. If you need to take your game to a different level, you need to figure out the "thinking" of the expert mind......and Gus' book does just that. (Currently I'm reading " Check Raising the Devil" which is Mike Matusow's biography.)

I was on Royal Caribbean's Baltic cruise last month and I won the poker tournament there, thanks to some of the books I read and also the TV programs I've seen. Unfortunately, there were insufficient players so I had to settle for a cash prize, otherwise they give a seat for the caribbean poker tour.

Enjoy your blog. Keep it going.”
Cheers!
Nerio

“I have both your books (RAZZ & 101 moves) and have found both have helped me fix leaks in both games. I’m still trying to apply some of the 101’s to my NLHE tourneys, with limited success so far (the low stakes I’m able to play at limit the effectiveness as at low buy-in so many take the “any two can win” & big Bet/all-in strategies to extremes).”
Regards,
dave

“The 101 book was freakin great!! There were like 3 typos but O well. On page 191 point 93 you said lose and i hope you meant tight, if not I'm really confused lol. But anyway the book was great. The coolest part I thought was how you put the reader in the Villian "part" instead of the normal Hero. All of the on line stuff I have read I am always the hero. This really hit home 4 me. So...Great Job!!
James Mosteller

“Hi Mitchell,
You are the most lucid, clear-writing poker author I've found and I really appreciate your work. The 101 Winning Moves book is just so valuable. I love how you have separated out all those strategic moves in a crystal clear, concise and understandable manner.”
Thank you.
Wily

“Hello, I bought your book No limit Poker 101 and am enjoying it very much. I am about 3/4 the way thru it. Extremely good material. Will reread it again when I am through. It is already helping me win or place in the money in sit and go tournaments. As for you widget quizzes, keep them coming. I need all the help I can get.

In your book you emphasize "Risk is Good". I noticed this on the WPT shows on TV. I am starting to believe in it, but with common sense.
Thank you for your book and keep up the tips that you provide.”
Robert Kerwin

“I have your book and it is great. imo the way it is written is way better than skylansky and harrington. it has really helped. I love the book. thanks and good luck.”
bill

“I already purchased your book a couple of months ago and am introducing some of the moves bit by bit. I've started to play more aggressive than previously, in the right spots of course, and am having better results than before (4 final tables in a row cashing over $2k in $20 MTT's). I’m also trying to learn a bit more of the small ball strategy so i can play more hands when over 20BB's and help mix up my play, do you have any advice for small ball at all? Much appreciated if you do.

Great book by the way.”
Thanks
Daniel

“I spent last week rereading your book (3rd time) and preparing for a tournament that I played in last Saturday, the Canterbury Fall Poker Classic here in the Minneapolis area. $500 buy-in, 210 players. I finished in 15th place and took home a nice chunk of change.

I used the no look blind steal for the first time. At level 9 the blinds were $1000-$2000 with $500 antes. I had about $40,000 in chips and needed to stay aggressive. I actually did it from under the gun, raising to $8000. (You might say I combined 2 moves). It worked and I took down an uncontested $9000. As I discarded my hand I saw I had 2h 3s. I'm glad I didn't look as I would have been a nervous wreck, however I "embraced the risk of the game". I was eliminated about an hour and a half later when my top 2 pair went down to a straight on the river.

Thanks again for your help.”
Kindest Regards,
William Barman

“Hi, I have already bought the book on pdf, i read 1/3 of it, and then played a 5$ MTT and became 11, 1 seat from final table...so im very happy with the book :-)”
Kindly Regards,
Thomas Clausen

“I purchased your ebook about 10 days ago via paypal. The book is excellent, thanks.”
ejohnson

“Just downloaded it today and was breezing over the preflop section while playing poker on the other monitor and entered few low stakes tournaments to test a few things out without looking at the majority of my cards and its paying off already!”
Anonymous

“Great work on the book! I definitely learned some new tricks, and I've played and dealt in many no-limit tournaments! I think it's vitally important to consider many factors in making a poker decision, as you do very well, such as position, stack sizes, pot size and table images (yours and your opponent's).”
Ryan W.

Poker Quiz and Answer: You've got pocket Aces and your opponent has what?

Poker Quiz: You've got pocket Aces and your opponent has what?

You are in a MTT tournament with $25,000 buy-in. You won the money playing at Fu

Image via Wikipedia

ll Rush poker...lol. And you decided to come to Vegas play in this event at the Bellagio.

Poker Quiz

It's in the early rounds. The blinds are $50-$100. You have about $23,000 in chips.

You are in seat 3. The player under the gun limps and you find pocket Aces. You want to get paid off with pocket Aces, and raise only $300. I would raise bigger myself, since everyone is deep stacked, but you play your way.

A player in late position calls as does the big blind and the limper. There are 4 players in the hand and the pot is $1,250. Pocket Aces against four players is not an ideal situation...but....

The flop is Ks-6d-5h. Excellent flop for Aces, I think.

There are two checks to you and you bet $800.

Everyone folds but the big blind calls. There is now $2,850 in the pot.

It is heads-up.

You should be thinking: What does your opponent have in this situation? What range of hands do you put him on?

My thinking: There are no flush draws. He may have top pair. He probably would have raised with two pair--but I don't see anyone calling a pre-flop raise with K-6 or K-5. 6-5 suited maybe, but no check raise so I don't see two pair. What about a set? A set is always possible, but I don't like assuming the worse.

Most likely hands to my thinking is probably K-10, K-Q, or K-J. I could be wrong.

The turn is a 9c. I like that card, unless my opponent has K-9 or 8-7.

He checks. You bet $1,800. A good bet. It controls the size of the pot. Oops. Your opponent check raises to $4,000.

Let's think this through...Let's start with the pot. It is $8,650. It will cost you only $2,200 to call.

What do you know about your opponent? Nothing, except he is in a $25,000 buy-in event, so he must know how to play the game.

Maybe he has K-10, K-Q, or K-J...or maybe he just hit two pair with K-9. You do have outs against two pair. You call.

The pot is now $10,850.

The river is an 8s. I don't see that changing anything. Either he had you on the turn or not.

Your opponent bets $7,500. Is that a value bet? A continuation bet? A pure bluff?

What should you do?

Poker Answer

This was an actual hand at the WPT Championship.

The player with pocket Aces went into the tank. He finally called.

His opponent showed K-10 and lost the pot.

Some players think it was a bad call since there were so many ways that his opponent could have two pair. In general, it is tough to get any player to fold with pocket Aces.

Some Limit Cash Games

Last night, I decided to play some limit poker. It's been a long time.

I was watching this one hand and was quite surprised by this play. It was heads-up and the board was Kh-5h-9s-9c-2h. The player in position kept betting and being called. On the river, the player in position bet again, but this time he was check-raised.

He went into the tank, and folded, showing his 9. His opponent took down the pot and laughed as he showed pocket Aces. That is a bad play, because his opponent had shown a few bluffs already and it is only going to cost you one big bet.

Here are two hands that I were in last night. The learning for you is don't muck your hand, no matter what your opponent says he is holding.

#1. I had a set on the flop and was betting to protect my hand against two opponents. On the river one of these guys, check raises me. The board looked like he had a straight on the river. Still, I had to call. My opponent doesn't turn his cards over. Instead, he says, "I've got the straight." I kept waiting for him to show his hand. Finally, the dealer asks the player to show his cards. He has top pair, that's all. What a jerk.

#2. Here I am up against a different opponent. We are heads-up all the way to the river. I have A-2, and the board is A-A-4-J-4. On the river after I bet, my opponent raises me, I re-raise, he re-raises, and I call. He says "I've got a bigger full house." I'm thinking A-J and I get ready to muck. What does he show? A-4. Another jerk.

My warning to you, especially if you have been playing mostly online, is that when you go to the card room and someone tells you what they have on the river. Don't muck. Wait till you see the hand.

Reminder:

Full Rush poker Freeroll
Wednesday October 28 at 9pm ET
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Poker Quiz: You've got pocket Aces and your opponent has what?

Poker Quiz: You've got pocket Aces and your opponent has what?

You are in a MTT tournament with $25,000 buy-in. You won the money playing at Fu

Image via Wikipedia

ll Rush poker...lol. And you decided to come to Vegas play in this event at the Bellagio.

Poker Quiz

It's in the early rounds. The blinds are $50-$100. You have about $23,000 in chips.

You are in seat 3. The player under the gun limps and you find pocket Aces. You want to get paid off with pocket Aces, and raise only $300. I would raise bigger myself, since everyone is deep stacked, but you play your way.

A player in late position calls as does the big blind and the limper. There are 4 players in the hand and the pot is $1,250. Pocket Aces against four players is not an ideal situation...but....

The flop is Ks-6d-5h. Excellent flop for Aces, I think.

There are two checks to you and you bet $800.

Everyone folds but the big blind calls. There is now $2,850 in the pot.

It is heads-up.

You should be thinking: What does your opponent have in this situation? What range of hands do you put him on?

My thinking: There are no flush draws. He may have top pair. He probably would have raised with two pair--but I don't see anyone calling a pre-flop raise with K-6 or K-5. 6-5 suited maybe, but no check raise so I don't see two pair. What about a set? A set is always possible, but I don't like assuming the worse.

Most likely hands to my thinking is probably K-10, K-Q, or K-J. I could be wrong.

The turn is a 9c. I like that card, unless my opponent has K-9 or 8-7.

He checks. You bet $1,800. A good bet. It controls the size of the pot. Oops. Your opponent check raises to $4,000.

Let's think this through...Let's start with the pot. It is $8,650. It will cost you only $2,200 to call.

What do you know about your opponent? Nothing, except he is in a $25,000 buy-in event, so he must know how to play the game.

Maybe he has K-10, K-Q, or K-J...or maybe he just hit two pair with K-9. You do have outs against two pair. You call.

The pot is now $10,850.

The river is an 8s. I don't see that changing anything. Either he had you on the turn or not.

Your opponent bets $7,500. Is that a value bet? A continuation bet? A pure bluff?

What should you do?

Answer on Monday....And a Reminder....

I am hosting a "Trick or Treat" Tournament on Full Rush poker on Wednesday October 28 at 9pm ET (so as not to compete against the Twitter Poker Tournaments).

It is a $50 Freeroll + you win another $10 Bounty if you knock me out. But, you won't knock me out since I plan on winning. :) My name is: Myway1969

There is no password needed since only qualified players will see the event listed.

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Why Aren't There More Women Poker Stars?

Why Aren't There More Women Poker Stars?

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Watching the WSOP on ESPN every year, the show makes a big deal about the few remaining women in the event. Maybe one or two women make a deep run, but a woman hasn't been at a main event, final table since Barbara Enright in 2005.

Why?

Here are my thoughts:

1. Before poker became popular on TV, the game was played by men. So men have an edge in experience.

But...Women can gain a lot of experience by playing online and live events today, and a few have broken through to win a few big events. Annie Duke, Jen Harmon and Kathy Liebert are top players and probably attract other women to the game.

2. Poker tournaments are a numbers game. There may be a 90%/10% split between men/women entrants.

There are so many more men, that it stands to reason that men will win more events. Today, when I watched the WSOP the announcers were calling almost every player a pro. I don't have a clue what constitutes a pro anymore. I guess it's someone who says they play a lot of poker and don't have a full time job.

3. Poker tournaments are often won by the aggressive players. Men may be more aggressive by nature. Heck, the fact is that men are more aggressive than women probably due to biology and our environment.

4. Women-only tournaments may be holding the women poker players back. The game is not about physical skills--we are not comparing the NBA to the WNBA. The game is about people, chips, betting patterns, cards, etc. To improve your poker game you need to play against players who are better than you, not only women players who are as good or worse than you.

Women Players Should Win More Events

My experience against women poker players is that most women play ABC poker. They learn to play a tight aggressive or tight passive game--both of which are really easy to take advantage of in the long term in a tournament.

However, I also find that when I play against a good women poker player it is much more difficult for me to get a tell. It may be that I assume that women bluff less, are more predictable and therefore, I don't pay much attention to their game. My guess is that most men do the same when it comes to women.

In fact, I know that men try hard to muscle women out of pots with their raises. (The only exception is in cash games--where guys are suckers to women who are eye candy, and a guy won't make that extra raise or he will just tell her she is beat to save her money. I have to admit, I've done this once or twice...)

Overall, I believe that the next great tournament poker player should be a woman. It is also why I believe with just a little coaching I could even turn a woman poker player into a great player.

Maybe the next great poker TV show should be one where you get a dozen aspiring women poker players, and they get taught how to play at the highest levels. Maybe you lock them in a house for 30 days, and an audience gets to vote them off one by one.

Suggestion

If you are a women poker player, think about the game from the standpoint of winning players. Analyze your game more. Get out of your comfort zone. You have an edge against many men who dismiss your skills. Men will try to force you to fold. Men will also believe your pre-flop raises and big bets. Use that knowledge to your advantage.

What do you think?

What Do You Think of the Mistake I Made at the Local Sunday Poker Tournament

My Mistake at the Local Sunday poker tournament

I have not played in a live event in quite some time. I decided to play at the Oaks Sunday event. It is a no limit event with a $125 buy-in and $100 rebuy.

Everyone begins with $2,500 in chips with 20 minute rounds.

Early levels

Nothing was happening for me early on, until this hand. The situation was that I was in the big blind for $50. Everyone folded to the small blind. The small blind is one of the stronger players in the event--I've played against him before. He will bet his hand and follow-up with a half-sized continuation bet almost every time.

In the small blind, he raised to $250. I thought he was trying to steal my blind. I found A-7 offsuit. Not a great hand, but I had position. I called.

There was $500 in the pot.

The flop was A-J-2 rainbow. He bet $250 and I called. I figured he would check the turn if he didn't have the ace.

There was $1,000 in the pot.

The turn was a 6.

He had about $2,000 left and I had about the same. He moved all-in.

That surprised me. Did he have top pair with a better kicker? Or was he just firing another bullet?

I was unsure of what to do. He was in seat 10 and I was in seat 1. I leaned back in my seat to see if I could pick up a tell. One of my edges in live poker is that I tend to be real good at picking up tells.

My opponent was totally still and looking down at the board cards. This indicated weakness to me so I called.

He showed pocket 4's and I doubled up!

A key hand for me was the last hand before the break. The blinds were $100-$200.

The same player from before was in early position and he raised to $600. I was next and found pocket Jacks. This hands needs to be played very carefully when early player raises 3x's the big blind upfront. I called.

To my surprise, the player in the big blind called. The player was a woman who played ABC poker, but will give up a hand on the turn, if her c-bet gets called and hasn't improved.

The three of us took the flop. There was $1,900 in the pot.

The flop was 9-9-4. The pre-flop raiser was first and he had $2,000 and moved all-in. I had pocket Jacks...what to do here?

Well, I leaned back in my chair and checked him out. This time he was relaxed and he was looking up and away fro the table. I thought that meant he had AA, KK or QQ...but I could be wrong.

The only other thing to worry about was the player behind me. I thought I noticed a slight reaction from her when the flop was revealed. Was she reacting to the paired board or did she have a 9? She may have hit that 9, I thought. I could be wrong.

Given the situation I folded my overpair. A mistake?

She insta-called and showed A-9 suited. The guy turned over Q-Q and was knocked out. I was feeling real good about my play...

Middle Rounds

I didn't take the rebuy since I was up to $7,500.

After the rebuy period, though, I went card dead.

The blinds are now $200-$400 with a $25 ante. I was in an early position.

The player under the gun limped in. I found A-Q. I had about $7,000.

I started to count out chips for a raise, when I had a feeling that this was going to be a bad hand for me. I was going to raise to $1,600, but in the previous hand, the limper had won a huge pot and had about $10,000. If I raised, I knew he would call, and I would be in a tough spot if I missed the flop.

I limped. The big blind checked. There was $1,600 in the pot.

The flop came A-4-2 with 2 diamonds. I had the Q of diamonds.

I liked the flop. The big blind checked, but the limper bet $1,000.

What did I know about this player? He was an amateur. If he had a hand, he bet it. If not, he checked. Of course, he had only been at the table for about 10 minutes, so I could be wrong about his game.

I called, and the big blind folded. There was now $3,600 in the pot.

The turn was another Ace. A diamond! Now I had three aces and the flush draw with the Q of diamonds.

I really liked my hand...until....my opponent moved all-in for over $7,000!

Geeze....what to do now?

Did he have a flush? Why overbet the pot?

When this player had won the previous pot, he made a full house on the river and moved all-in. When he moved all-in, his opponent didn't know what to do, so he took some time to consider his action. I looked at the player who push all-in and he was so excited, he was practically falling out of his chair. I knew he had to have a hand. His opponent called, and lost a lot of chips.

In my situation, the best thing to do was take time and see if this guy was acting the same way. Sure enough, he was. He was so excited...but why move all-in on the turn? Could he really have a big hand back-to-back? My read was that he had a big hand.

I thought for a while longer. I looked at my cards, and it was such a nice hand. My tells had been working well so far...so...I called for all my chips! What?!

He turned over pocket 4's for a boat, and I was out. Oh my, what I a terrible mistake...

What do you think of the mistake I made at the local sunday poker tournament

Who is The Best Tournament Poker Player?

Who is The Best Tournament Poker Player?

I have played against some but not all of the top tournament poker players. Here is my ranking as to the top 5 players:

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

1. Phil Hellmuth.
I know he does the brat routine for the TV cameras, but I think Phil is the best tournament poker player I have ever played against. He is smart, aggressive, tricky, and knows how to take control of a table. The thing about Phil is that he works hard at getting better each year, and I think it shows.

2. Phil Ivey.
This guy is so intimidating. He lets his chips do the talking. You just want to fold when Phil Ivey comes in raising pre-flop. I mean do you really think you are going to outplay him on the flop, or turn, or river? Phil may be the best reader of his opponents hand strength. Since he doesn't speak at the table, this is something that casual poker players don't get to see. Maybe we will learn more about Phil's poker playing skills at this year's final table.

3. David Pham.
David is one of those players who doesn't stop raising pre-flop. He is so relentless. He doesn't get much TV time, but he always seems to be one of the top ten finalists each year in the CardPlayer Player of the Year.

4. Layne Flack.
Layne Flack can play any two cards and win. He is aggressive and smart. Layne has different speeds, meaning he knows how to change his style of play in the middle of a tournament. The one thing going against Layne is that he doesn't have that same intimidation factor that the other top Pros tend to have.

5. Erick Lindgren.
Erick is one of those players who I would describe as brutal. The guy is not just out to beat you, he is out to take all of your chips. He is smart, aggressive, and a great poker player.

The Common Ingredients of a Top Tournament Poker Player
Aggressive.
Forget about terms like loose aggressive or tight aggressive. They use sheer aggression to win.

Intimidating.
When you sit down at a poker table against these guys, they have an immediate edge. They are pros and intimidate the hell out of you. But it's not their celebrity that intimidates, it is their overall level of play.

Play their opponents more than their cards.
Maybe its instinct, but the top players know how to get a read on their opponent's strength. My belief is that they read betting patterns a lot more than they trust poker tells; although, they certainly can spot tells.

Smart.
They know when to take a risk, and when to put an opponent at risk. They know the odds and the percentages. They know more poker moves than the rest of us. Most importantly, they understand that the fame and fortune comes about from winning.

Tricky.
The pros know how to take advantage of situations. They know who to trap and how to trap. They know who to bluff and who not to bluff.

Great timing.
The pros often seem to have more card luck than the rest of us. This could be their positive outlook to the game. Or, it could be that they play every day so they just have more experience and card sense than the rest of us. Most likely, it is all of the above.

Who is the best tournament poker player you have ever played against and why?

Poker Trivia: Video Quiz

Poker Trivia: Video Quiz

The Reasons to Fold These Poker Hands--Or Not

The Reasons to Fold These Poker Hands--Or Not

I was asked on Twittter by @Pokerpunim to explain my reasoning on why or why not one should lay down a hand. So, here goes:

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Playing Jeopardy: Situations and The Thinking Behind the Play

I sign up to play a MTT online. Everyone starts with 1500 in chips. It is the first hand and blinds are 15-30 and I am on the button.

Question #1: The player under the gun raises to 90 and one other player re-raises to 270. I have pocket Jacks on the button. What should I do?

I have no clue about the players, but I assume they are average. A three times raise can mean a wide range of hands, but the re-raise means a powerful hand. I may be ahead now, but I know that an overcard will appear on the flop about two-thirds of the time making my pocket Jacks difficult to play. Also, I don't want to risk more than 10% of my chips hoping to hit a set on the first hand. I fold.

If I had pocket Queens instead of Jacks, I am not folding. If I am up against pocket Aces or pocket Kings, than my hand is a cooler. However, I will not always move all-in here. Early in the event, I don't mind seeing the flop.

Question #2: Same situation but it is the start of round 2 and the blinds are 20-40. The player under the gun raises to 120 and one other player re-raises to 360. I have pocket Jacks. What should I do?

I have a better idea about the players now. The first player has only 600 chips because he is playing loose, and the second player has 3000 chips because he is playing loose, aggressive and he has gotten very lucky. I think this re-raiser views me as a tight player. I have 1200 in chips left.

If the first player has a hand, he will move all-in for his last 600 and the re-raiser will surely call. Any pocket pair will play better against one opponent. In this situation, I will decide to fold or move all-in. I prefer to move all-in and hope to be heads up against just the original raiser or win the pot uncontested.

Question #3: It is late in the tournament and you are on the button. The blinds are 100-200. You have 2,300. The player in early position with 5,600 raises to 600. Everyone folds to you and you find pocket Queens. What should you do?

I am not happy with my chip position. Almost every player at the table has at least 5000 in chips. My goal here is not to simply win the pot, but to win as many chips as possible. The raiser is a tight, card player. The blinds are very aggressive and may push behind me. Pocket Queens is a big hand and if I move all-in I will most likely take down the 900 win. But I like to gamble with big hands when I need chips.

I call. The big blind with 6000 in chips also calls.

The flop is A-A-4 rainbow. The pot is 1900. Both opponents check. You have 1700 left. The correct play must be to move all-in, right?

In most cases I will push here, but I know that the big blind likes to take shots. Again, my goal is the same: to gamble. Since I am on the button, a small bet will look like I am trying to steal. I bet 900. The big blind calls.

The turn is an 8. The big blind bets into me. I have only 800 left. If the big blind has the Ace, I am out. I have to call, of course. I even have two outs to win this big pot. My opponent shows 4-5 suited. And this pot more than doubles me up.

Actually this is the hand I played last night which got me back into the game and where I eventually finished 2nd in the 45 player MTT.

Question #4: It is the middle of the event. The blinds are 40-80. You have 5000. You are under the gun with A-K and raise to 240. Usually a pre-flop raise will get at most one caller. However, you get three callers.

The flop is K-9-4 rainbow. The pot is 1000. You bet 800 and everyone folds to the last player. This player raises you to 1600. What should you do?

This player has 4000 left. He is a tight player. You haven't seen him make this move before. There are no apparent draws. This hand is going to cost you all your chips. You have a tight image as well. You have top pair, top kicker but that min-raise means a better hand to me. My guess is that it is pocket 9's. I am willing to fold here and save my chips for a better situation.

Question #5: You are now down to 3960 and are in a middle position. Everyone folds to you and again, you have As-Kd. You put in a three time raise to 240. The button and big blind call.

The flop is Kh-9h-4c. There is 760 in the pot. The big blind checks. You bet 600 and the button folds. The big blind now check raises you all-in. What should you do?

There was 1360 in the pot when the big blind pushed in his remaining 4000. You have 3120 left. This is a tough situation as your call will leave you will very few chips.

This opponent hasn't made one of these check raise all-in moves before, so you need to figure out what his all-in bet means.

Since he moved all-in with an oversized bet, he does not want you to call. To me, that means he either has two pair or a flush draw. He may have hit a set, but a set usually wants a caller.

How to determine if he has two pair or a flush draw? I would look at the board cards. Would this opponent call a pre-flop raise with any two card combinations using a King, a 9 and a 4. Maybe K-9 suited of clubs. In this situation, I would lean toward calling because of the following:

a) I have a King, which reduces his chance of having a King
b) I don't think there is a good chance he will call a pre-flop raise with K-9 suited
c) Even if he does have the K-9, I can get lucky and win with an Ace.
d) Of course, even if I'm right about his flush draw, he may hit his hand and beat me.

This is another situation which I recently faced playing online. I called and my opponent showed that K-9. Bummer.

I hope this helps. Please let me know if you agree or disagree with my line of play. Thanks!

Will you fold these poker hands?

Would you be able to lay down these poker hands?

Last night, I was watching the WSOP on ESPN and a hand came up which was very interesting to me.

Image by sean dreilinger via Flickr

A player in early position found A-J and put in a standard 3x the big blind raise. A player in late position had pocket 6's and called. The flop was A-6-x. (I don't recall the other card, but it wasn't a Jack.)

The pre-flop raiser put in about a 60% sized pot bet. The announcer said something to the effect that this guy was going to get in big trouble with this hand.

The player with the set raised to double that amount. Surprisingly, the player with the top pair folded.

My question to you is this: Would you be able to lay down that hand? I believe this player would have folded A-K to that flop raise.

Other Situations

This got me to thinking about all the situations in poker where a player just can't fold and will often say "I can't fold this hand." Of course, this statement means he knows he has the losing hand, so he is going to give his opponent more chips to prove he is smart/right.

I think that the flop raise is one of the most common situation where the lead bettor who hits top pair on the flop, will call a flop raise and lose a bundle.

Here are some other situations: Will you lay your hand down?

Pre-Flop: You have pocket Jacks on the button. One player raises and another player re-raises. Will you lay down your pocket Jacks? What if it was pocket Queens?

Flop: You have pocket Kings and raise. You get only one caller. The flop is A-8-2. Your opponent bets into you. Will you lay down your pocket Kings?

Flop: You raise with A-K and get three callers. The flop gives you top pair, top kicker. You bet and everyone folds, except the big blind. The big blind check raises you. Will you lay down that top pair, top kicker? That check raise often signals two pair, and sometimes a set.

Flop: You raise with A-K and get three callers. The flop gives you top pair, top kicker. It also has two suited cards on the board. You bet and everyone folds, except the big blind. The big blind check raises you all-in with a bet that is twice the size of the pot. Will you lay down that top pair, top kicker? That over-sized all-in bet often means a flush draw.

Turn: You have top pair and top kicker on the flop. You bet the pot and get one caller. With two suited cards on the flop, you figure that your opponent is on the draw. The turn card is a rag (like a 4) and not of the same suit. You bet again, and to your surprise your opponent puts in a big raise. Will you lay your hand down?

River: You have been betting your top pair, top kicker on the flop and turn. The river card is a rag and it doesn't provide for any completed straight or flush draws. You bet on the river and your opponent puts in a big raise. He has shown weakness throughout the hand, and now on the river he is telling you he is strong. Will you lay your hand down?

Suggestion

I am not suggesting that you should always lay down your hand in all of these situations. In fact, there are two situations above, specifically, the flop check raise all-in and the big river bet, where I will lean toward calling

But sometimes a good fold is a good thing.

Do you know of other situations where players tend to always call where it looks like they are behind in the hand?