Friday, October 30, 2009

Why Phil Ivey Won't Win the WSOP Main Event

Why Phil Ivey Won't Win the WSOP Main Event

Here are the final 9.
(And Congrats to Leo Margets, who was the woman who did the best at the 2009 main event.)
  • Darvin Moon: being portrayed as the worst player
  • Eric Buchman: New York poker pro.
  • Steven Begleiter: helped to put you, me and the world in a recession. If he wins, there is no God.
  • Jeff Shulman: his dad just won the WSOPE, so enough already.
  • Kevin Schaffel: has ESPN shown him play one hand yet?
  • Joseph Cada: did anyone card this kid? I think he asked me to buy him beer at the 7-11.
  • Antoine Saout: the French Moneymaker? Uh oh, watch out, I think the French invented poker--pogue.
  • James Akenhead: pro from London. He seems way too nice too win.
  • Phil Ivey: the best player
My thoughts

I am rooting for Phil Ivey to win because it would be the best thing to happen to the game. A top pro winning would help to support legislation that is based on the fact that poker is a game of skill and not chance. (It would not make the two-faced NFL go away, and they will continue to pay off politicians to block legislation that allows online poker to be regulated and taxed.)

Ivey is the best poker player at the table, and maybe the world.

Ivey likes to be aggressive and control a table with his play. This may work in his favor since the tendency is to tighten up at the final table of the WSOP. Heck, I don't think I'd play a hand until it got down to 7 or 6 handed.

There are a number of poker pros at the final table. The difference between Ivey and another poker pro is not that great. It is not like comparing Barry Bonds against Marvin Bernard (although neither knew what that stuff was they were injecting into their body. =) It's more like comparing A-Rod and David Wright.

Bottom Line

Phil Ivey has a 25% chance to win the main event. Which means he has a better probability of losing the event.

My pick: Eric Buchman. New York, New York.

What do you think?


Vera said...

I hope Ivey wins it but I think Darvin Moon will. He has a third of the chips in play and it will probably be a repeat of Jamie Gold or Jerry Yang. He has the chips to call lots of raises and try to get lucky with the flop. If he runs hot then it's in the bag-if he runs cold he will lose his chip lead. I just hope that Shulman doesn't win after what he said about throwing the bracelet in the trash.

Mitchell Cogert said...

The episodes with Moon I caught on ESPN made him look like he played a very simple game and that he was getting a great run of big hands.

Big pocket pairs raise or re-raise.
Big starting hands...On Flop: Check when he missed and check raised when he hit.

I don't think he has much chance of winning...even with all those chips.
I'd give him 10x's more chips than Ivey, and Ivey would beat him 9 times out of 10...IMO.

Dez said...

Not all is lost though for Ivey. As I believe the 25% chance seems quite a lot compared to 1/9 (or 11,11%). More than double then the average chance. Also, after eliminations it might change (implied odds) thus cheer up and send him the good vibrations.

@vera I think Shulman (being a Phil Helmuth trainee) just like to speak big, hence the theatrical bracelet throw out speech. On the other hand I am a positivist thus I can't agree with his view neither.

BigTPoker said...

It seems that very few people want Moon to win, though he's done nothing wrong.

Anyway, I guess I don't really have a preference. I can just hope that nobody gets knocked out due to a lucky runner-runner suck out. As long as that doesn't happen I'll take whatever outcome as being good.

rakeback said...

Darvin Moon has really just been fortunate to catch the cards that he has so far. I dont think he stands much of a chance of winning the title, even though he has such a large chip stack.

What's Your Poker IQ?